Introducing run-size driven fisheries management for the coastal fishery of Atlantic salmon: Preseason forecasts for policy makers

The Finnish coastal fishery of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) in the northern Baltic Sea is regulated using multi-annual, pre-fixed, opening dates of harvests that aim to enhance spawning escapement of early migrating wild salmon. Such an inflexible management regime does not set regulations that track varying run sizes of salmon. We introduce an array of computational intelligence techniques to estimate and forecast coastal run size and escapement of salmon into three spawning rivers in the northern Baltic Sea. Our results indicated that the present management pattern, driven largely by regional fisheries policy, contrasts greatly with a "run-size driven" (i.e. abundance-based) management approach. Introducing run-size driven management, i.e. setting regulations annually by tracking preseason forecasts, would better ensure adequate escapement and at the same time allow the maintenance of coastal catch at sustainable level. Setting regulations annually would allow effective harvesting in years when the run is high, and would effectively restrict harvests when the run is low.