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Timing is everything: Short-run population impacts of immigration in US cities

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  • Wozniak, Abigail
  • Murray, Thomas J.

Abstract

We provide the first analysis of the short-run causal impact of immigrant inflows on native populations at the local labor market level. Using published statistics from the American Community Surveys of 2000–2010, we examine how immigrant inflow shocks to a metropolitan area affect native populations. We find that immigrant inflows are associated with increases in local native populations on an annual basis but that these OLS estimates are generally upward biased. Our IV results are purged of this bias, but we still find that an additional immigrant increases the low skill native population by 0.4–0.7 in the concurrent period. To explain this result, we show that immigrant inflows lead to declines in outflows of low skill natives from affected MSAs. This is most pronounced in MSAs from which relocation is arguably more costly, which may disproportionately affect the low skilled. We find short-run responses among high skill natives that are consistent with displacement. The decline in high skilled native populations is driven by high skilled immigrant inflows, and high skilled outflows increase from affected MSAs. We show that these short-run changes are obscured in specifications using longer-run population changes and conclude that the short-run impact of immigrants on native populations differs markedly from their longer-run impact.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Urban Economics.

Volume (Year): 72 (2012)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 60-78

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Handle: RePEc:eee:juecon:v:72:y:2012:i:1:p:60-78

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/622905

Related research

Keywords: Immigration; Population change; Local labor markets; Short-run dynamics;

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References

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  1. David Card, 1997. "Immigrant Inflows, Native Outflows, and the Local Labor Market Impacts of Higher Immigration," NBER Working Papers 5927, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. John DiNardo & David Card, 2000. "Do Immigrant Inflows Lead to Native Outflows?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(2), pages 360-367, May.
  3. Ethan Lewis, 2003. "Local, open economies within the U.S.: how do industries respond to immigration?," Working Papers 04-1, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  4. Rappaport, Jordan & Kahn, Matthew E. & Glaeser, Edward, 2008. "Why Do The Poor Live In Cities? The Role of Public Transportation," Scholarly Articles 2958224, Harvard University Department of Economics.
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Cited by:
  1. de la Rica, Sara & Glitz, Albrecht & Ortega, Francesc, 2013. "Immigration in Europe: Trends, Policies and Empirical Evidence," IZA Discussion Papers 7778, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  2. Hunt, Jennifer, 2012. "The Impact of Immigration on the Educational Attainment of Natives," IZA Discussion Papers 6904, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  3. Tiago Freire & Xiaoye Li, 2013. "How Immigration Reduced Social Capital in the US: 2005-2011," ERSA conference papers ersa13p1285, European Regional Science Association.
  4. Christoph Basten & Michael Siegenthaler, 2013. "Do immigrants take or create residents’ jobs? Quasi-experimental evidence from Switzerland," KOF Working papers 13-335, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.

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