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Intermodal competition in the London–Paris passenger market: High-Speed Rail and air transport

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Author Info

  • Behrens, Christiaan
  • Pels, Eric
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    Abstract

    This paper studies inter- and intramodal competition in the London–Paris passenger market during the period 2003–2009. We identify the degree to and conditions under which High-Speed Rail is a viable substitute for airline travel. Using pooled cross-sectional data we estimate multinomial and mixed logit models to examine actual travel behaviour. Our model allows us to analyse the reaction of passenger behaviour on the withdrawal of aviation alternatives and the completion of the High-Speed Rail link between the two cities in November 2007. The results show that travel time and frequency are the main determinants of travel behaviour. The valuation of total travel times changes over the years following the opening of the High-Speed Rail link. Furthermore, we show that the direct elasticity of market share with respect to frequency for a number of aviation alternatives is above 1, indicating that these alternatives are not able to maximise profits. These alternatives subsequently left the market in our sample period. For the remaining aviation alternatives, except for easyJet, we find elasticities of market share with respect to frequency close to 1. Therefore, we conjecture that competition in this market will decline in the long run.

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    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0094119011000921
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Urban Economics.

    Volume (Year): 71 (2012)
    Issue (Month): 3 ()
    Pages: 278-288

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:juecon:v:71:y:2012:i:3:p:278-288

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/622905

    Related research

    Keywords: Inter- and intramodal competition; Mixed logit; Aviation; Rail; Passenger behaviour;

    References

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    1. Pels, Eric & Nijkamp, Peter & Rietveld, Piet, 2003. "Access to and competition between airports: a case study for the San Francisco Bay area," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 71-83, January.
    2. Koppelman, Frank S. & Wen, Chieh-Hua, 2000. "The paired combinatorial logit model: properties, estimation and application," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 75-89, February.
    3. Ortúzar, Juan de Dios & Simonetti, Carolina, 2008. "Modelling the demand for medium distance air travel with the mixed data estimation method," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 14(6), pages 297-303.
    4. Train,Kenneth E., 2009. "Discrete Choice Methods with Simulation," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521766555, October.
    5. Jun Ishii & Sunyoung Jun & Kurt Van Dender, 2006. "Air Travel Choices in Multi-Airport Markets," Working Papers 050622, University of California-Irvine, Department of Economics.
    6. Bhat, Chandra R., 1997. "Covariance heterogeneity in nested logit models: Econometric structure and application to intercity travel," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 11-21, February.
    7. Pels, Eric & Nijkamp, Peter & Rietveld, Piet, 2000. "Airport and Airline Competition for Passengers Departing from a Large Metropolitan Area," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 29-45, July.
    8. Basar, Gözen & Bhat, Chandra, 2004. "A parameterized consideration set model for airport choice: an application to the San Francisco Bay Area," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 38(10), pages 889-904, December.
    9. Park, Yonghwa & Ha, Hun-Koo, 2006. "Analysis of the impact of high-speed railroad service on air transport demand," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 95-104, March.
    10. Adler, Nicole & Pels, Eric & Nash, Chris, 2010. "High-speed rail and air transport competition: Game engineering as tool for cost-benefit analysis," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 44(7), pages 812-833, August.
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    Cited by:
    1. Jiang, Changmin & Zhang, Anming, 2014. "Effects of high-speed rail and airline cooperation under hub airport capacity constraint," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 33-49.
    2. Yan, Jia & Oum, Tae Hoon, 2014. "The effect of government corruption on the efficiency of US commercial airports," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 119-132.
    3. Chester, Mikhail V. & Ryerson, Megan S., 2014. "Grand challenges for high-speed rail environmental assessment in the United States," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 15-26.
    4. Yang, Hangjun & Zhang, Anming, 2012. "Effects of high-speed rail and air transport competition on prices, profits and welfare," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 46(10), pages 1322-1333.
    5. Paha, Johannes & Rompf, Dirk & Warnecke, Christiane, 2013. "Customer choice patterns in passenger rail competition," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 209-227.
    6. Mancuso, Paolo, 2014. "An analysis of the competition that impinges on the Milan–Rome intercity passenger transport link," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 42-52.

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