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An evaluation of alternative fiscal adjustment plans: The case of Italy

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  • Acocella, Nicola
  • Beqiraj, Elton
  • Di Bartolomeo, Giovanni
  • Di Pietro, Marco
  • Felici, Francesco

Abstract

What advice can be given to the policymaker to reduce the burden of public debt after a crisis? In this situation, the debt consolidation calls for fiscal surplus based on increases in taxes and/or reductions in public spending. This paper aims at answering to the above question. Specifically, it evaluates different policy options on the table using the estimated model of the Italian dynamic General Equilibrium Model (IGEM). Our main message is that plans aimed at reducing the public debt based on tax increases rather than expenditure reductions are more effective. Therefore, consolidation should be designed on the former.

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  • Acocella, Nicola & Beqiraj, Elton & Di Bartolomeo, Giovanni & Di Pietro, Marco & Felici, Francesco, 2020. "An evaluation of alternative fiscal adjustment plans: The case of Italy," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 699-711.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:42:y:2020:i:3:p:699-711
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2019.07.007
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    2. Falavigna, G. & Ippoliti, R., 2021. "Reform policy to increase the judicial efficiency in Italy: The opportunity offered by EU post-Covid funds," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 43(5), pages 923-943.
    3. Benigno Pierpaolo & Canofari Paolo & Di Bartolomeo Giovanni & Messori Marcello, 2020. "The ECB’s Asset Purchase Programme: Theory, effects, and risks," wp.comunite 00147, Department of Communication, University of Teramo.
    4. Ibrar Hussain & Jawad Hussain & Arshad Ali & Shabir Ahmad, 2021. "A Dynamic Analysis of the Impact of Fiscal Adjustment on Economic Growth: Evidence From Pakistan," SAGE Open, , vol. 11(2), pages 21582440211, June.
    5. Renzo Orsi & Knut Lehre Seip, 2023. "Do Increased Tax Base and Reductions in the Underground Economy Compensate for Lost Tax Revenue Following a Tax Reduction Policy? Evidence from Italy 1982 to 2006," Economies, MDPI, vol. 11(7), pages 1-19, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Austerity; Public debt; Output; Fiscal adjustment plans;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory

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