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Potential growth of the world economy

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  • Jorgenson, Dale W.
  • Vu, Khuong M.
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    Abstract

    This paper introduces a new framework for projecting potential growth of the world economy, emphasizing the contribution of information technology. We first analyze the sources of economic growth for the world economy, seven regions, and fourteen major economies during four periods--1989-1995, 1995-2000, 2000-2004, and 2004-2008. The contribution of investment in information technology has increased in all regions, but especially in industrialized economies and Developing Asia. We then project the potential growth rates of labor productivity and GDP for 122 economies over the ten-year period 2009-2019. Relative to historical growth for 1989-2008, we project lower growth rates for productivity and GDP.

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    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6V82-50P4N1B-C/2/9a54609c818a204c2e77fa8b9b00355b
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Policy Modeling.

    Volume (Year): 32 (2010)
    Issue (Month): 5 (September)
    Pages: 615-631

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:32:y::i:5:p:615-631

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505735

    Related research

    Keywords: Growth Information technology Investment Productivity;

    References

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    1. Bart van Ark & Mary O'Mahoney & Marcel P. Timmer, 2008. "The Productivity Gap between Europe and the United States: Trends and Causes," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 22(1), pages 25-44, Winter.
    2. World Bank, 2009. "World Development Indicators 2009," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 4367, October.
    3. Jorgenson, Dale W., 1966. "The Embodiment Hypothesis," Scholarly Articles 3403063, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    4. Dale W. Jorgenson & J. Steven Landefeld, 2009. "Implementation of a New Architecture for the US National Accounts," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(2), pages 64-68, May.
    5. Michael J. Harper & Brent R. Moulton & Steven Rosenthal & David B. Wasshausen, 2009. "Integrated GDP-Productivity Accounts," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(2), pages 74-79, May.
    6. Dale W. Jorgenson, 1966. "The Embodiment Hypothesis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 74, pages 1.
    7. Dale W. Jorgenson & Mun S. Ho & Kevin J. Stiroh, 2007. "A retrospective look at the U.S. productivity growth resurgence," Staff Reports 277, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    8. Angus Maddison, 2009. "Measuring The Economic Performance Of Transition Economies: Some Lessons From Chinese Experience," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 55(s1), pages 423-441, 07.
    9. Dale W. Jorgenson, 2001. "Information Technology and the U.S. Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(1), pages 1-32, March.
    10. Dale W. Jorgenson & J. Steven Landefeld, 2006. "Blueprint for Expanded and Integrated U.S. Accounts: Review, Assessment, and Next Steps," NBER Chapters, in: A New Architecture for the U.S. National Accounts, pages 13-112 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Dale W. Jorgenson, 2009. "A New Architecture For The U.S. National Accounts," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 55(1), pages 1-42, 03.
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    Cited by:
    1. Cui, Cathy Xin & Ha, Soo Jung & Hanley, Nicholas & McGregor, Peter G & Turner, Karen & Yin, Ya Ping, 2011. "Productivity Growth, Decoupling and Pollution Leakage," Stirling Economics Discussion Papers 2011-13, University of Stirling, Division of Economics.
    2. Asteris, Michael & Collins, Alan & Jones, Dylan F., 2012. "Container port infrastructure in north-west Europe: Policy-level modeling," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 312-324.
    3. Vu, Khuong M., 2013. "Information and Communication Technology (ICT) and Singapore’s economic growth," Information Economics and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 284-300.
    4. Jorgenson, Dale W. & Vu, Khuong M., 2011. "The rise of developing Asia and the new economic order," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 698-716, September.

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