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Is industry still the engine of growth? An econometric study of the organized sector employment in India

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  • Chakravarty, Sangeeta
  • Mitra, Arup
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    Abstract

    This paper in an attempt to examine if the manufacturing sector is still the engine of growth delineates the inter-connections among several activities based on time series data on employment in different components of the organized sector in India. The analysis is pursued in the vector auto-regression (VAR) framework taking into account the results of variance decomposition analysis and the impulse response function. The findings suggest that some of the activities are growing independent of the manufacturing sector. Nevertheless manufacturing, construction and community, social and personal services are the most important drivers. Finally, the paper predicts the informal sector employment based on the magnitude of employment in different components of the organized or formal sector. Given the narrow margin of error of forecast the paper argues that in the absence of time series information on total employment, the time series on organized sector employment can be used for necessary predictions and planning required for employment and poverty.

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    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6V82-4STYTRJ-1/2/75e25ccb69c70e957c9e1f7f1e4684f2
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Policy Modeling.

    Volume (Year): 31 (2009)
    Issue (Month): 1 ()
    Pages: 22-35

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:31:y:2009:i:1:p:22-35

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505735

    Related research

    Keywords: Engine of growth Manufacturing Organized sector;

    References

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    1. McKinnon, Ronald & Schnabl, Gunther, 2006. "Devaluing the dollar: A critical analysis of William Cline's case for a New Plaza Agreement," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 683-694, September.
    2. Paul M Romer, 1999. "Endogenous Technological Change," Levine's Working Paper Archive 2135, David K. Levine.
    3. Bussolo, Maurizio & Mizala, Alejandra & Romaguera, Pilar, 2002. "Beyond Heckscher-Ohlin: trade and labour market interactions in a case study for Chile," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 24(7-8), pages 639-666, November.
    4. Robert B. Litterman, 1979. "Techniques of forecasting using vector autoregressions," Working Papers 115, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    5. Stiglitz, Joseph E., 2003. "Globalization and growth in emerging markets and the New Economy," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 505-524, July.
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    Cited by:
    1. Lavopa, Alejandro & Szirmai, Adam, 2012. "Industrialization, employment and poverty," UNU-MERIT Working Paper Series 081, United Nations University, Maastricht Economic and social Research and training centre on Innovation and Technology.
    2. Lavopa, Alejandro & Szirmai, Adam, 2012. "Industrialization, employment and poverty," MERIT Working Papers 081, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    3. Szirmai, Adam, 2012. "Industrialisation as an engine of growth in developing countries, 1950–2005," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 406-420.
    4. Szirmai, Adam & Verspagen, Bart, 2011. "Manufacturing and Economic Growth in Developing Countries, 1950-2005," MERIT Working Papers 069, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).

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