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A comparison of simplified value function approaches for treating uncertainty in multi-criteria decision analysis

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  • Durbach, Ian N.
  • Stewart, Theodor J.
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    Abstract

    Uncertainty is present in many decisions where an action's consequences are unknown because they depend on future events. Multi-attribute utility theory (MAUT) offers an axiomatic basis for choice, but practitioners may prefer to use simpler decision models for transparency, ease of use, or other practical reasons. We identify some ‘simplified’ models currently in use and use a simulation experiment to evaluate their ability to approximate results obtained using MAUT. Our basic message is that avoiding assessment errors in the application of a simplified model is more important than the choice of a particular type of model, but that the best performance over a range of decision problems is from a model using a small number of quantiles.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Omega.

    Volume (Year): 40 (2012)
    Issue (Month): 4 ()
    Pages: 456-464

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:jomega:v:40:y:2012:i:4:p:456-464

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    Related research

    Keywords: Decision making/process; Multicriteria; Risk;

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    Cited by:
    1. Durbach, Ian N., 2014. "Outranking under uncertainty using scenarios," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 232(1), pages 98-108.
    2. Wan, Shu-Ping & Li, Deng-Feng, 2013. "Fuzzy LINMAP approach to heterogeneous MADM considering comparisons of alternatives with hesitation degrees," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 41(6), pages 925-940.
    3. Stewart, Theodor J. & French, Simon & Rios, Jesus, 2013. "Integrating multicriteria decision analysis and scenario planning—Review and extension," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 41(4), pages 679-688.
    4. Zhou, Yang & Huang, Guo H. & Yang, Boting, 2013. "Water resources management under multi-parameter interactions: A factorial multi-stage stochastic programming approach," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 559-573.
    5. Durbach, Ian N. & Stewart, Theodor J., 2012. "Modeling uncertainty in multi-criteria decision analysis," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 223(1), pages 1-14.
    6. Kadziński, Miłosz & Greco, Salvatore & Słowiński, Roman, 2013. "RUTA: A framework for assessing and selecting additive value functions on the basis of rank related requirements," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 41(4), pages 735-751.

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