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A robustness framework for monitoring real options under uncertainty

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  • Driouchi, Tarik
  • Leseure, Michel
  • Bennett, David
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    Abstract

    This paper presents a problem structuring methodology to assess real option decisions in the face of unpredictability. Based on principles of robustness analysis and scenario planning, we demonstrate how decision-aiding can facilitate participation in projects setting and achieve effective decision making through the use of real options reasoning. We argue that robustness heuristics developed in earlier studies can be practical proxies for real options performance, hence indicators of efficient flexible planning. The developed framework also highlights how to integrate real options solutions in firms' strategic plans and operating actions. The use of the methodology in a location decision application is provided for illustration.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Omega.

    Volume (Year): 37 (2009)
    Issue (Month): 3 (June)
    Pages: 698-710

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:jomega:v:37:y:2009:i:3:p:698-710

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    Related research

    Keywords: Soft OR Efficiency Group decisions Planning and control Robustness analysis Real options;

    References

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    1. Rosenhead, Jonathan, 1981. "Operational research in urban planning," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 345-364.
    2. Bruce Kogut & Nalin Kulatilaka, 1994. "Operating Flexibility, Global Manufacturing, and the Option Value of a Multinational Network," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 40(1), pages 123-139, January.
    3. White, Leroy & Bourne, Humphrey, 2007. "Voices and values: Linking values with participation in OR/MS in public policy making," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 588-603, October.
    4. Coff, Russell W. & Laverty, Kevin J., 2001. "Real options on knowledge assets: Panacea or Pandora's box?," Business Horizons, Elsevier, vol. 44(6), pages 73-79.
    5. Arnd Huchzermeier & Christoph H. Loch, 2001. "Project Management Under Risk: Using the Real Options Approach to Evaluate Flexibility in R...D," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 47(1), pages 85-101, January.
    6. Alessandri, Todd M. & Ford, David N. & Lander, Diane M. & Leggio, Karyl B. & Taylor, Marilyn, 2004. "Managing risk and uncertainty in complex capital projects," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(5), pages 751-767, December.
    7. Lander, Diane M. & Pinches, George E., 1998. "Challenges to the Practical Implementation of Modeling and Valuing Real Options," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(3, Part 2), pages 537-567.
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    9. Mingers, John & Rosenhead, Jonathan, 2004. "Problem structuring methods in action," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 152(3), pages 530-554, February.
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    11. Alex Triantis & Adam Borison, 2001. "Real Options: State Of The Practice," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Morgan Stanley, vol. 14(2), pages 8-24.
    12. Mingers, John & Brocklesby, John, 1997. "Multimethodology: Towards a framework for mixing methodologies," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 489-509, October.
    13. Kidd, J. B. & Prabhu, S. P., 1990. "A practical example of a multi-attribute decision aiding technique," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 139-149.
    14. Salo, Ahti A., 1995. "Interactive decision aiding for group decision support," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 134-149, July.
    15. MacDougall, Shelley L. & Pike, Richard H., 2003. "Consider your options: changes to strategic value during implementation of advanced manufacturing technology," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 1-15, February.
    16. Shiv K. Gupta & Jonathan Rosenhead, 1968. "Robustness in Sequential Investment Decisions," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 15(2), pages B18-B29, October.
    17. Sounderpandian, Jayavel & Prasad, Sameer & Madan, Manu, 2008. "Supplies from developing countries: Optimal order quantities under loss risks," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 122-130, February.
    18. Bennett, DJ & Forrester, PL & Hassard, JS, 1990. "An application of decision process modelling to manufacturing system design," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 23-33.
    19. Ormerod, RJ, 1998. "Putting Soft OR Methods to Work: Information Systems Strategy Development at Palabora," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 75-98, February.
    20. Charles H. Fine & Robert M. Freund, 1990. "Optimal Investment in Product-Flexible Manufacturing Capacity," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 36(4), pages 449-466, April.
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    Cited by:
    1. Gabrel, Virginie & Murat, Cécile & Thiele, Aurélie, 2014. "Recent advances in robust optimization: An overview," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 235(3), pages 471-483.
    2. Bell, John E. & Griffis, Stanley E. & Cunningham III, William A. & Eberlan, Jon A., 2011. "Location optimization of strategic alert sites for homeland defense," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 151-158, April.
    3. Martzoukos, Spiros H & Zacharias, Eleftherios, 2008. "Real Option Games with R&D and Learning Spillovers," MPRA Paper 12686, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Lin, Tyrone T. & Huang, Shio-Ling, 2010. "An entry and exit model on the energy-saving investment strategy with real options," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 794-802, February.

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