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More Confusion in Contagion Tests: the Effects of a Crisis Sourced in US Credit Markets

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  • Dungey, Mardi
  • Fry, Renée

Abstract

The involvement of the world's primary developed credit markets in the United States at the heart of the global financial crisis poses some particularly difficult challenges to the contagion modelling literature. U.S. credit markets have often been used as a benchmark market for global economic conditions, but their intrinsic involvement further complicates our understanding of the transmission of financial market shocks. This paper demonstrates how the involvement of benchmark assets may result in falls in the correlation between asset markets, even in the presence of increased volatility in common or benchmark assets and the presence of contagion.

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  • Dungey, Mardi & Fry, Renée, 2009. "More Confusion in Contagion Tests: the Effects of a Crisis Sourced in US Credit Markets," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 41-70.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:joecas:v:6:y:2009:i:3:p:41-70
    DOI: 10.1016/S1703-4949(16)30051-2
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. P. Hartmann & S. Straetmans & C. G. de Vries, 2004. "Asset Market Linkages in Crisis Periods," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(1), pages 313-326, February.
    2. Kathy Yuan, 2005. "Asymmetric Price Movements and Borrowing Constraints: A Rational Expectations Equilibrium Model of Crises, Contagion, and Confusion," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(1), pages 379-411, February.
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    4. Marcello Pericoli & Massimo Sbracia, 2003. "A Primer on Financial Contagion," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(4), pages 571-608, September.
    5. Mardi Dungey & Vance L. Martin, 2004. "A Multifactor Model of Exchange Rates with Unanticipated Shocks: Measuring Contagion in the East Asian Currency Crisis," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 3(3), pages 305-330, December.
    6. Laura E. Kodres & Matthew Pritsker, 2002. "A Rational Expectations Model of Financial Contagion," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(2), pages 769-799, April.
    7. Dungey, Mardi & Tambakis, Demosthenes N. (ed.), 2005. "Identifying International Financial Contagion: Progress and Challenges," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195187182.
    8. Stefanie Kleimeier & Thorsten Lehnert & Willem F. C. Verschoor, 2008. "Measuring Financial Contagion Using Time‐Aligned Data: The Importance of the Speed of Transmission of Shocks," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 70(4), pages 493-508, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Choi, Jin W., 2012. "The Effectiveness of the Small Business Lending Fund (SBLF) Program During the 2007–2010 Financial Crisis," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 59-76.
    2. Zorgati, Imen & Garfatta, Riadh, 2021. "Spatial financial contagion during the COVID-19 outbreak: Local correlation approach," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 24(C).
    3. Zhang, Yi & Zhou, Long & Chen, Yajiao & Liu, Fang, 2022. "The contagion effect of jump risk across Asian stock markets during the Covid-19 pandemic," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    E51; E52; E53; Contagion; Correlation; Factor models; Global financial crisis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E53 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Deposit Insurance

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