Approximating posterior probabilities in a linear model with possibly noninvertible moving average errors
AbstractThe method of Laplace is used to approximate posterior probabilities for a collection of polynomial regression models when the errors follow a process with a noninvertible moving average component. These results are useful in the problem of period-change analysis of variable stars and in assessing the posterior probability that a time series with trend has been overdifferenced. The nonstandard covariance structure induced by a noninvertible moving average process can invalidate the standard Laplace method. A number of analytical tools is used to produce corrected Laplace approximations. These tools include viewing the covariance matrix of the observations as tending to a differential operator. The use of such an operator and its Green's function provides a convenient and systematic method of asymptotically inverting the covariance matrix. In certain cases there are two different Laplace approximations, and the appropriate one to use depends upon unknown parameters. This problem is dealt with by using a weighted geometric mean of the candidate approximations, where the weights are completely data-based and such that, asymptotically, the correct approximation is used. The new methodology is applied to an analysis of the prototypical long-period variable star known as Mira.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Multivariate Analysis.
Volume (Year): 99 (2008)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/622892/description#description
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Tsay, Ruey S, 1993. "Testing for Noninvertible Models with Applications," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(2), pages 225-33, April.
- Plosser, Charles I. & Schwert, G. William, 1977. "Estimation of a non-invertible moving average process : The case of overdifferencing," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 199-224, September.
- Sargan, J D & Bhargava, Alok, 1983. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Regression Models with First Order Moving Average Errors When the Root Lies on the Unit Circle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(3), pages 799-820, May.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.