Estimation of high-dimensional prior and posterior covariance matrices in Kalman filter variants
AbstractThis work studies the effects of sampling variability in Monte Carlo-based methods to estimate very high-dimensional systems. Recent focus in the geosciences has been on representing the atmospheric state using a probability density function, and, for extremely high-dimensional systems, various sample-based Kalman filter techniques have been developed to address the problem of real-time assimilation of system information and observations. As the employed sample sizes are typically several orders of magnitude smaller than the system dimension, such sampling techniques inevitably induce considerable variability into the state estimate, primarily through prior and posterior sample covariance matrices. In this article, we quantify this variability with mean squared error measures for two Monte Carlo-based Kalman filter variants: the ensemble Kalman filter and the ensemble square-root Kalman filter. Expressions of the error measures are derived under weak assumptions and show that sample sizes need to grow proportionally to the square of the system dimension for bounded error growth. To reduce necessary ensemble size requirements and to address rank-deficient sample covariances, covariance-shrinking (tapering) based on the Schur product of the prior sample covariance and a positive definite function is demonstrated to be a simple, computationally feasible, and very effective technique. Rules for obtaining optimal taper functions for both stationary as well as non-stationary covariances are given, and optimal taper lengths are given in terms of the ensemble size and practical range of the forecast covariance. Results are also presented for optimal covariance inflation. The theory is verified and illustrated with extensive simulations.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Multivariate Analysis.
Volume (Year): 98 (2007)
Issue (Month): 2 (February)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/622892/description#description
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Gneiting, Tilmann, 2002. "Compactly Supported Correlation Functions," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 83(2), pages 493-508, November.
- Gneiting, Tilmann, 1999. "Radial Positive Definite Functions Generated by Euclid's Hat," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 88-119, April.
- Furrer, Reinhard, 2005. "Covariance estimation under spatial dependence," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 94(2), pages 366-381, June.
- Clifford Lam, 2008. "Estimation of large precision matrices through block penalization," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 31543, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Zvi Bodie & J�r�me Detemple & Marcel Rindisbacher, 2009. "Life-Cycle Finance and the Design of Pension Plans," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 1(1), pages 249-286, November.
- Xue, Lingzhou & Zou, Hui, 2013. "Minimax optimal estimation of general bandable covariance matrices," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 45-51.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.