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Estimating fiscal policy reaction functions: The role of model specification

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  • Plödt, Martin
  • Reicher, Claire A.

Abstract

The literature has not yet come to a consensus on the actual responses of fiscal policy to output and to past public debt levels within industrialized countries. While the cyclical adjustment literature has suggested a strong response of the primary surplus to the output gap, the time-series literature has tended to report a far smaller response. However, recent theoretical findings suggest that some of this difference may be due to the way in which the time-series literature has typically handled the issue of autocorrelation, in a way which is incompatible with the timing of automatic stabilizers. In order to find a way around this problem, we formulate and estimate a set of fiscal policy reaction functions for the euro area, which allow for the primary surplus to feature three components: a fast-moving (stabilizing) response to the output gap, a consolidating response to the debt-GDP ratio, and an exogenous, persistent fiscal policy shifter. When we formulate a fiscal reaction function in this way, our estimates are compatible in magnitude with previous estimates from the cyclical adjustment literature. Furthermore, based on a set of model comparison exercises in line with what has been done in the monetary policy literature, we argue that our specification explains the data better than does the more commonly used specification.

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  • Plödt, Martin & Reicher, Claire A., 2015. "Estimating fiscal policy reaction functions: The role of model specification," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 113-128.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jmacro:v:46:y:2015:i:c:p:113-128
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2015.08.005
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    Cited by:

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    2. Karlis Vilerts & Olegs Tkacevs, 2016. "The Impact of Sovereign Bond Yields on Fiscal Discipline," Working Papers 2016/05, Latvijas Banka.
    3. Sigl-Glöckner, Philippa & Krahé, Max & Kern, Florian & Schuster, Florian, 2022. "A proposal for reforming the Stability and Growth Pact," Papers 277897, Dezernat Zukunft - Institute for Macrofinance, Berlin.
    4. Agnello, Luca & Castro, Vítor & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2023. "A quest between fiscal and market discipline," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    5. Grzegorz Poniatowski, 2019. "Enhancing Prudent Fiscal Policy," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 11(4), pages 199-215, December.
    6. Sigl-Glöckner, Philippa & Krahé, Max & Kern, Florian & Schuster, Florian, 2022. "Zur Weiterentwicklung der europäischen Fiskalregeln," Papers 277895, Dezernat Zukunft - Institute for Macrofinance, Berlin.
    7. António Afonso & José Alves & José Carlos Coelho, 2023. "Determinants of the degree of fiscal sustainability," Working Papers REM 2023/0255, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    8. Iancu, Aurel & Olteanu, Dan Constantin, 2023. "Debt Limit, Fiscal Space and Fiscal Fatigue in the Central and Eastern European Countries of EU," Working Papers of National Institute for Economic Research 230629, Institutul National de Cercetari Economice (INCE).
    9. Amélie BARBIER-GAUCHARD & Nicolas MAZUY, 2018. "Country-specific fiscal reaction functions: what lessons for EMU ?," Working Papers of BETA 2018-28, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    10. Aldama, Pierre & Creel, Jérôme, 2022. "Real-time fiscal policy responses in the OECD from 1997 to 2018: Procyclical but sustainable?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal reaction function; Fiscal policy; Autocorrelation; Euro area; Primary surplus; One-off operations;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H61 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Budget; Budget Systems
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus

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