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Inflation persistence and exchange rate regime: Implications for dynamic adjustment to shocks in a small open economy

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  • Kuralbayeva, Karlygash

Abstract

The paper examines implications of inflation persistence for business cycle dynamics following terms of trade shock in a small oil producing economy, under inflation targeting and exchange rate targeting regimes. It is shown that due to the 'Walters critique' effect, the country's adjustment paths are slow and cyclical if there is a significant backward-looking element in the inflation dynamics and the exchange rate is fixed. It is also shown that such cyclical adjustment paths are moderated if there is a high proportion of forward-looking price setters in the economy, so that when the Phillips curve becomes completely forward-looking cyclicality in adjustment paths disappears and the response of the real exchange rate becomes hump-shaped. In contrast, with an independent monetary policy, irrespective of the degree of inflation persistence, flexible exchange rate allows to escape severe cycles, which results in a smooth response of the real exchange rate.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Macroeconomics.

Volume (Year): 33 (2011)
Issue (Month): 2 (June)
Pages: 193-205

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jmacro:v:33:y:2011:i:2:p:193-205

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/622617

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Keywords: Inflation inertia Inflation targeting Exchange rate targeting Phillips curve Oil shocks Small open economy;

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Hyuk Jae Rhee & Jeongseok Song, 2013. "Unemployment fluctuations, and optimal monetary policy in a small open economy," Working Papers 1309, University of Windsor, Department of Economics.
  2. Rhee, Hyuk-jae & Turdaliev, Nurlan, 2012. "Optimal monetary policy in a small open economy with inflation and output persistence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2533-2542.
  3. Rhee, Hyuk Jae & Song, Jeongseok, 2013. "Real wage rigidities and optimal monetary policy in a small open economy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 110-127.

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