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The impact of fiscal policy on private consumption and social outcomes in Europe and the CIS

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  • Carmignani, Fabrizio

Abstract

The paper studies the effects of fiscal policy on per-capita private consumption and social outcomes in a simultaneous equations framework. The focus is on transition economies and the model specification allows for a non-linear response of socio-economic variables to fiscal policy depending on the fiscal regime. Key results are (i) fiscal policy has Keynesian effects in transition countries and non-Keynesian effects in high-income OECD economies, but only outside normal times, (ii) public health and social protection expenditure improve social outcomes, and (iii) there is evidence of electoral business cycle of fiscal policy in both transition and high-income countries.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Macroeconomics.

Volume (Year): 30 (2008)
Issue (Month): 1 (March)
Pages: 575-598

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jmacro:v:30:y:2008:i:1:p:575-598

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/622617

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References

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  1. Francesco Giavazzi & Tullio Jappelli & Marco Pagano, 2000. "Searching for Non-Linear Effects of Fiscal Policy: Evidence from Industrial and Developing Countries," NBER Working Papers 7460, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Alberto Alesina & Roberto Perotti & José Tavares, 1998. "The Political Economy of Fiscal Adjustments," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(1), pages 197-266.
  3. Jose Tavares, 2000. "Does Right or Left Matter? Cabinets, Credibility and Fiscal Adjustments," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1548, Econometric Society.
  4. Emanuele Baldacci & Maria Teresa Guin-Siu & Luiz De Mello, 2003. "More on the effectiveness of public spending on health care and education: a covariance structure model," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(6), pages 709-725.
  5. Olivier Blanchard & Roberto Perotti, 2002. "An Empirical Characterization Of The Dynamic Effects Of Changes In Government Spending And Taxes On Output," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 117(4), pages 1329-1368, November.
  6. Newey, Whitney K & West, Kenneth D, 1987. "Hypothesis Testing with Efficient Method of Moments Estimation," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 28(3), pages 777-87, October.
  7. Mountford, Andrew & Uhlig, Harald, 2002. "What are the Effects of Fiscal Policy Shocks?," CEPR Discussion Papers 3338, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Torsten Persson & Guido Tabellini, 2004. "Constitutional Rules and Fiscal Policy Outcomes," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(1), pages 25-45, March.
  9. Schclarek, Alfredo, 2003. "Fiscal Policy and Private Consumption in Industrial and Developing Countries," Working Papers 2003:20, Lund University, Department of Economics, revised 30 Sep 2005.
  10. Roberto Perotti, 2004. "Estimating the effects of fiscal policy in OECD countries," Working Papers 276, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  11. Robert J. Barro, 2012. "Inflation and Economic Growth," CEMA Working Papers 568, China Economics and Management Academy, Central University of Finance and Economics.
  12. Craig Burnside & Martin Eichenbaum & Jonas Fisher, 2003. "Fiscal Shocks and Their Consequences," NBER Working Papers 9772, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Gupta, Sanjeev & Verhoeven, Marijn, 2001. "The efficiency of government expenditure: experiences from Africa," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 433-467, May.
  14. van Aarle, Bas & Garretsen, Harry, 2003. "Keynesian, non-Keynesian or no effects of fiscal policy changes? The EMU case," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 213-240, June.
  15. Valerie A. Ramey & Matthew D. Shapiro, 1999. "Costly Capital Reallocation and the Effects of Government Spending," NBER Working Papers 6283, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Sanjeev Gupta & Luc Leruth & Luiz de Mello & Shamit Chakravarti, 2003. "Transition Economies: How Appropriate is the Size and Scope of Government?," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(4), pages 554-576, December.
  17. Giavazzi, Francesco & Pagano, Marco, 1995. "Non-Keynesian Effects of Fiscal Policy Changes: International Evidence and the Swedish Experience," CEPR Discussion Papers 1284, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  18. Alberto Alesina & Roberto Perotti, 1995. "Fiscal Expansions and Fiscal Adjustments in OECD Countries," NBER Working Papers 5214, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  19. Alam, Asad & Sundberg, Mark, 2002. "A decade of fiscal transition," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2835, The World Bank.
  20. Mitra, Pradeep & Stern, Nicholas, 2003. "Tax systems in transition," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2947, The World Bank.
  21. Gupta, Sanjeev & Verhoeven, Marijn & Tiongson, Erwin R., 2002. "The effectiveness of government spending on education and health care in developing and transition economies," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 717-737, November.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Carmignani, Fabrizio & Avom, Desire, 2010. "The social development effects of primary commodity export dependence," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(2), pages 317-330, December.
  2. Desire Avom & Fabrizio Carmignani, . "Is Mother Nature a Curse for Social Development?," MRG Discussion Paper Series 2709, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
  3. Carmignani, Fabrizio, 2010. "Cyclical fiscal policy in Africa," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 254-267, March.
  4. Carmignani, Fabrizio, 2009. "The distributive effects of institutional quality when government stability is endogenous," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 409-421, December.
  5. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:6:y:2008:i:27:p:1-13 is not listed on IDEAS
  6. Fabrizio Carmignani, . "Cyclical fiscal policy in developing countries: the case of Africa," MRG Discussion Paper Series 2408, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
  7. World Bank, 2013. "Reviving Romania's Growth and Convergence Challenges and Opportunities : A Country Economic Memorandum," World Bank Other Operational Studies 16036, The World Bank.
  8. Fabrizio Carmignani, 2011. "Development and large scale violence," Discussion Papers Series 433, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.

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