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The impact of fiscal policy on private consumption and social outcomes in Europe and the CIS

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  • Carmignani, Fabrizio

Abstract

The paper studies the effects of fiscal policy on per-capita private consumption and social outcomes in a simultaneous equations framework. The focus is on transition economies and the model specification allows for a non-linear response of socio-economic variables to fiscal policy depending on the fiscal regime. Key results are (i) fiscal policy has Keynesian effects in transition countries and non-Keynesian effects in high-income OECD economies, but only outside normal times, (ii) public health and social protection expenditure improve social outcomes, and (iii) there is evidence of electoral business cycle of fiscal policy in both transition and high-income countries.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Macroeconomics.

Volume (Year): 30 (2008)
Issue (Month): 1 (March)
Pages: 575-598

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jmacro:v:30:y:2008:i:1:p:575-598

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/622617

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  1. Sanjeev Gupta & Luc Leruth & Luiz de Mello & Shamit Chakravarti, 2003. "Transition Economies: How Appropriate is the Size and Scope of Government?," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(4), pages 554-576, December.
  2. Andrew Mountford & Harald Uhlig, 2005. "What are the Effects of Fiscal Policy Shocks?," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2005-039, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  3. Roberto Perotti, 2005. "Estimating the effects of fiscal policy in OECD countries," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  4. Robert J. Barro, 2013. "Inflation and Economic Growth," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 14(1), pages 121-144, May.
  5. Craig Burnside & Martin Eichenbaum & Jonas Fisher, 2003. "Fiscal Shocks and Their Consequences," NBER Working Papers 9772, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Schclarek, Alfredo, 2003. "Fiscal Policy and Private Consumption in Industrial and Developing Countries," Working Papers 2003:20, Lund University, Department of Economics, revised 30 Sep 2005.
  7. Valerie A. Ramey & Matthew D. Shapiro, 1999. "Costly Capital Reallocation and the Effects of Government Spending," NBER Working Papers 6283, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Francesco Giavazzi & Tullio Jappelli & Marco Pagano, 2000. "Searching for Non-Linear Effects of Fiscal Policy: Evidence from Industrial and Developing Countries," NBER Working Papers 7460, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Emanuele Baldacci & Maria Teresa Guin-Siu & Luiz De Mello, 2003. "More on the effectiveness of public spending on health care and education: a covariance structure model," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(6), pages 709-725.
  10. Francesco Giavazzi & Marco Pagano, 1995. "Non-Keynesian Effects of Fiscal Policy Changes: International Evidence and the Swedish Experience," NBER Working Papers 5332, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. van Aarle, Bas & Garretsen, Harry, 2003. "Keynesian, non-Keynesian or no effects of fiscal policy changes? The EMU case," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 213-240, June.
  12. Tavares, Jose, 2004. "Does right or left matter? Cabinets, credibility and fiscal adjustments," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(12), pages 2447-2468, December.
  13. Alam, Asad & Sundberg, Mark, 2002. "A decade of fiscal transition," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2835, The World Bank.
  14. Gupta, Sanjeev & Verhoeven, Marijn, 2001. "The efficiency of government expenditure: experiences from Africa," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 433-467, May.
  15. Alberto Alesina & Roberto Perotti & José Tavares, 1998. "The Political Economy of Fiscal Adjustments," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(1), pages 197-266.
  16. Alberto Alesina & Roberto Perotti, 1995. "Fiscal Expansions and Fiscal Adjustments in OECD Countries," NBER Working Papers 5214, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Mitra, Pradeep & Stern, Nicholas, 2003. "Tax systems in transition," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2947, The World Bank.
  18. Olivier Blanchard & Roberto Perotti, 1999. "An Empirical Characterization of the Dynamic Effects of Changes in Government Spending and Taxes on Output," NBER Working Papers 7269, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  19. Gupta, Sanjeev & Verhoeven, Marijn & Tiongson, Erwin R., 2002. "The effectiveness of government spending on education and health care in developing and transition economies," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 717-737, November.
  20. Newey, Whitney K & West, Kenneth D, 1987. "Hypothesis Testing with Efficient Method of Moments Estimation," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 28(3), pages 777-87, October.
  21. Torsten Persson & Guido Tabellini, 2004. "Constitutional Rules and Fiscal Policy Outcomes," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(1), pages 25-45, March.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Carmignani, Fabrizio & Avom, Desire, 2010. "The social development effects of primary commodity export dependence," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(2), pages 317-330, December.
  2. Desire Avom & Fabrizio Carmignani, . "Is Mother Nature a Curse for Social Development?," MRG Discussion Paper Series 2709, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
  3. World Bank, 2013. "Reviving Romania's Growth and Convergence Challenges and Opportunities : A Country Economic Memorandum," World Bank Other Operational Studies 16036, The World Bank.
  4. Fabrizio Carmignani & Sriram Shankar & Eng Tan & Kam Tang, 2014. "Identifying covariates of population health using extreme bound analysis," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer, vol. 15(5), pages 515-531, June.
  5. Carmignani, Fabrizio, 2010. "Cyclical fiscal policy in Africa," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 254-267, March.
  6. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:6:y:2008:i:27:p:1-13 is not listed on IDEAS
  7. Carmignani, Fabrizio, 2009. "The distributive effects of institutional quality when government stability is endogenous," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 409-421, December.
  8. Fabrizio Carmignani, 2011. "Development and large scale violence," Discussion Papers Series 433, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
  9. Fabrizio Carmignani, . "Cyclical fiscal policy in developing countries: the case of Africa," MRG Discussion Paper Series 2408, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.

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