Country risk, foreign borrowing, and the social discount rate in an open developing economy
AbstractMost discussions on the social rate of discount have assumed that the economy under consideration is isolated from the rest of the world, and that there are no capital movements. This paper explicitly analyzes the determination of the social rate of discount in a small open developing economy. It is shown that under general conditions, the discount rate will bea weighted average of the marginal return to capital in the private sector(p), the rate of time preference (r), and the marginal cost of foreign indebtedness (n).It is also shown that unless the country faces an upward-sloping supply curve for foreign funds the weights of p and r will be zero. Finally, it is shown that if the country in question faces a foreign borrowing constraint imposed from abroad, the social rate of discount becomes equal to a weighted average of the domestic marginal return to capital and the rate of time preferences. Data for a group of LDCs is then used to show that financial markets have indeed attached a default country risk premium to LDCs. This provides some evidence in favor of the hypothesis that developing countries face an upward-sloping supply curve of foreign funds, and that, in general, the social rate of discount should be a weighted average of p, r and n. Finally,some numerical examples are used to show that ignoring the open economy aspects can result in a substantial overstatement of the social rate of discount.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of International Money and Finance.
Volume (Year): 5 (1986)
Issue (Month): 1, Supplement (March)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30443
Other versions of this item:
- Sebastian Edwards, 1986. "Country Risk, Foreign Borrowing and the Social Discount Rate in an Open Developing Economy," NBER Working Papers 1651, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Eduardo Morán & Gert Wagner, 1974. "Estimación de la Tasa de Retorno del Capital," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 11(34), pages 22-32.
- Warr, Peter G & Wright, Brian D, 1981. "The Isolation Paradox and the Discount Rate for Benefit-Cost Analysis," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 96(1), pages 129-45, February.
- Sandmo, Agnar & Dreze, Jacques H, 1971. "Discount Rates for Public Investment in Closed and Open Economies," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 38(152), pages 395-412, November.
- Hanson, James A, 1974. "Optimal International Borrowing and Lending," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 64(4), pages 616-30, September.
- Findlay, Ronald & Wellisz, Stanislaw, 1976. "Project Evaluation, Shadow Prices, and Trade Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(3), pages 543-52, June.
- Feder, Gershon & Ross, Knud Z, 1982. " Risk Assessments and Risk Premiums in the Eurodollar Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 37(3), pages 679-91, June.
- Usher, Dan, 1969. "On the Social Rate of Discount: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 59(5), pages 925-29, December.
- Sjaastad, Larry A & Wisecarver, Daniel L, 1977. "The Social Cost of Public Finance," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 513-47, June.
- Somers, Harold M, 1971. "On the Demise of the Social Discount Rate," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 26(2), pages 565-78, May.
- Nichols, Alan, 1969. "On the Social Rate of Discount: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 59(5), pages 909-11, December.
- Jeffrey Sachs & Daniel Cohen, 1982. "LDC Borrowing with Default Risk," NBER Working Papers 0925, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Feder, Gershon & Just, Richard E., 1977. "An analysis of credit terms in the eurodollar market," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 221-243.
- Juan Andrés Fontaine, 1994. "Inversiones Extranjeras por Fondos de Pensiones: Efectos sobre la Política Macroeconómica," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 31(93), pages 161-184.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.