IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jimfin/v2y1983i2p135-145.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Intertemporal price speculation and the optimal current-account deficit

Author

Listed:
  • Obstfeld, Maurice

Abstract

The paper studies the effects of terms-of-trade fluctuations in an infinite-horizon optimizing model of a small open economy. While the current-account response to a transitory terms-of-trade shock is in part explicable by intertemporal smoothing, an important additional factor is the effect of anticipated future terms-of-trade shifts on the real value of the external debt in terms of the home consumption basket. When foreign borrowing is indexed to the import good, a temporary worsening of the terms of trade creates the expectation of a decline in the real value of external debt. This fall in the relevant real interest rate leads households to increase consumption while export prices are low and to decrease consumption sharply once the terms of trade recover. If an adverse price shock is of sufficiently brief duration, instantaneous utility will rise initially.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Obstfeld, Maurice, 1983. "Intertemporal price speculation and the optimal current-account deficit," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 135-145, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:2:y:1983:i:2:p:135-145
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/0261-5606(83)90011-6
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1982. "Consumption opportunities and the real value of the external debt," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 93-101, February.
    2. Maurice Obstfeld, 1982. "Aggregate Spending and the Terms of Trade: Is There a Laursen-Metzler Effect?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 97(2), pages 251-270.
    3. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1982. "Interest rates and currency prices in a two-country world," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 335-359.
    4. Nancy Peregrim Marion, 1981. "Anticipated and Unanticipated Oil Price Increases and the Current Account," NBER Working Papers 0759, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Maurice Obstfeld, 1981. "Transitory terms-of-trade shocks and the current account: the case of constant time preference," International Finance Discussion Papers 194, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    6. Jeffrey D. Sachs, 1981. "The Current Account and macroeconomic Adjustment in the 1970s," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 12(1), pages 201-282.
    7. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1980. "Intermediate imports, the terms of trade, and the dynamics of the exchange rate and current account," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 461-480, November.
    8. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1983. "Real Interest Rates, Home Goods, and Optimal External Borrowing," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(1), pages 141-153, February.
    9. Rudiger Dornbusch & Paul Krugman, 1976. "Flexible Exchange Rates in the Short Run," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 7(3), pages 537-584.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Maurice Obstfeld, 1981. "Transitory terms-of-trade shocks and the current account: the case of constant time preference," International Finance Discussion Papers 194, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Tarlok Singh, 2007. "Intertemporal Optimizing Models Of Trade And Current Account Balance: A Survey," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(1), pages 25-64, February.
    3. Chen Fang & Po-Sheng Lin, 2013. "Traded Bond Denominations, Shock Persistence and Current Account Dynamics: Another Look at the Harberger–Laursen–Metzler Effect," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(4), pages 502-529, October.
    4. Muhammad Shafiullah & Faridul Islam & Ravinthirakumaran Navaratnam, 2020. "The Harberger–Laursen–Metzler effect: evidence from five SAARC countries," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(4), pages 1749-1777, April.
    5. repec:fth:nystbu:92-6 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Backus, David K & Kehoe, Patrick J & Kydland, Finn E, 1994. "Dynamics of the Trade Balance and the Terms of Trade: The J-Curve?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(1), pages 84-103, March.
    7. Diego N. Moccero, 2008. "The Intertemporal Approach to the Current Account: Evidence for Argentina," Journal of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(2), pages 327-353, November.
    8. Miller, Norman C., 2005. "Can exchange rate variations or trade policy alter the equilibrium current account?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 465-480, April.
    9. Frenkel, Jacob A. & Mussa, Michael L., 1985. "Asset markets, exchange rates and the balance of payments," Handbook of International Economics, in: R. W. Jones & P. B. Kenen (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 14, pages 679-747, Elsevier.
    10. David K. Backus & Patrick J. Kehoe & Finn E. Kydland, 1992. "Dynamics of the trade balance and the terms of trade: the J-curve revisited," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 65, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    11. Manuchehr Irandoust, 2017. "Saving behaviour under terms-of-trade uncertainty: evidence from hidden cointegration approach," Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(2), pages 135-150, May.
    12. Cunado, Juncal & Gracia, Fernando Perez de, 2005. "Current account and productivity: evidence for some European countries," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 75-89, February.
    13. Mr. Paul Cashin & Mr. C. John McDermott, 1998. "Terms of Trade Shocks and the Current Account," IMF Working Papers 1998/177, International Monetary Fund.
    14. International Monetary Fund, 1999. "Macroeconomic and Sectoral Effects of Terms-of-Trade Shocks: The Experience of the Oil-Exporting Developing Countries," IMF Working Papers 1999/134, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Davis, George K. & Miller, Norman C., 1996. "Exchange rate mean reversion from real shocks within an intertemporal equilibrium model," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(6), pages 947-967, December.
    16. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "The intertemporal approach to the current account," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 34, pages 1731-1799, Elsevier.
    17. Sergio Da Silva, 2004. "International Finance, Levy Distributions, and the Econophysics of Exchange Rates," International Finance 0405018, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Paul Cashin & C. John McDermott, 2003. "Intertemporal Substitution and Terms‐of‐Trade Shocks," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(4), pages 604-618, September.
    19. Erauskin, Iñaki & Gardeazabal, Javier, 2017. "The terms of trade, the external balance, and the size of the net foreign asset position," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 245-260.
    20. Singh, Tarlok, 2004. "On the optimizing model of the balance of trade in India," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 605-625, July.
    21. Puri, Tribhuvan N., 1996. "Capital flows and net international investment," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 113-130.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:2:y:1983:i:2:p:135-145. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30443 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.