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Assessing the importance of global shocks versus country-specific shocks

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  • Souki, Kaouthar
  • Enders, Walter

Abstract

A common assumption is that global shocks have little influence on current accounts, relative output levels, and real exchange rates. We use a four-variable structural VAR of the Sims-Bernanke type that allows us to obtain a global shock and three country-specific shocks. We find that global shocks explain sizable portions of real rate movements and bilateral current account balances. Our decomposition also allows us to measure the extent to which "third-country effects" are important in explaining bilateral real exchange rates and relative output levels.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of International Money and Finance.

Volume (Year): 27 (2008)
Issue (Month): 8 (December)
Pages: 1420-1429

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:27:y:2008:i:8:p:1420-1429

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30443

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Keywords: Real exchange rate Current account adjustment Structural VAR;

References

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  1. Serena Ng, 2001. "Can Sticky Prices Account for the Variations and Persistence in Real Exchange Rates?," Economics Working Paper Archive 468, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
  2. Reuven Glick & Kenneth Rogoff, 1993. "Global versus country-specific productivity shocks and the current account," International Finance Discussion Papers 443, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  3. Kwark, Noh-Sun, 1999. "Sources of international business fluctuations: Country-specific shocks or worldwide shocks?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 367-385, August.
  4. Hoffman, Mathias, 2001. "The Relative Dynamics of Investment and the Current Account in the G7-Economies," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 111(471), pages C148-63, May.
  5. James M. Nason & John H. Rogers, 1999. "Investment and the current account in the short run and the long run," International Finance Discussion Papers 647, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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Cited by:
  1. Winkelried, Diego & Saldarriaga, Miguel, 2013. "Socios comerciales y crecimiento en América Latina: Un enfoque SVAR dinámico," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 25, pages 81-102.

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