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IMF bailouts and moral hazard

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Lee, Jong-Wha
Shin, Kwanho

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Abstract

This paper empirically investigates the extent of investor moral hazard associated with IMF bailouts by analyzing the responses of sovereign bond spreads to the changes in the perceived probability of IMF bailouts of countries undergoing financial crisis. By allowing the probability of being bailed out by the IMF to differ across countries, we find that the expectations of IMF lending attenuate the relationship between spreads and country fundamentals, consistent with the presence of IMF moral hazard. Our findings indicate that this effect persists even after the non-bailout of Russian crisis in August 1998.

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File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6V9S-4S8K9DH-1/1/49127eccf72c7440c75391449dc9681a
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Publisher Info
Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of International Money and Finance.

Volume (Year): 27 (2008)
Issue (Month): 5 (September)
Pages: 816-830
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Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:27:y:2008:i:5:p:816-830

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30443

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Andrew G Haldane & J"rg Scheibe, . "IMF lending and creditor moral hazard," Bank of England working papers 216, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
  2. Timothy D. Lane & Steven Phillips, 2000. "Does IMF Financing Result in Moral Hazard?," IMF Working Papers 00/168, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Prasanna Gai & Ashley Taylor, . "International financial rescues and debtor-country moral hazard," Bank of England working papers 217, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Steven B. Kamin, 2002. "Identifying the role of moral hazard in international financial markets," International Finance Discussion Papers 736, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  5. Bird, Graham & Hussain, Mumtaz & Joyce, Joseph P., 2004. "Many happy returns? Recidivism and the IMF," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 231-251, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Robert J. Barro & Jong-Wha Lee, 2002. "IMF Programs: Who is Chosen and What Are the Effects?," NBER Working Papers 8951, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Stanley Fischer, 1999. "On the Need for an International Lender of Last Resort," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 13(4), pages 85-104, Fall. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Olivier Jeanne & Jeromin Zettelmeyer, 2001. "International bailouts, moral hazard and conditionality," Economic Policy, CEPR, CES, MSH, vol. 16(33), pages 407-432, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  9. Yung Chul Park & Yunjong Wang, 2002. "What Kind of International Financial Architecture for an Integrated World Economy?," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 1(1), pages 91-128. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Isabel Schnabel & Giovanni Dell'Ariccia & Jeromin Zettelmeyer, 2002. "Moral Hazard and International Crisis Lending: A Test," IMF Working Papers 02/181, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  11. Ashoka Mody & Diego Saravia, 2005. "Catalyzing Private Capital Flows: Do IMF Programs Work as Commitment Devices?," Documentos de Trabajo 280, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile.. [Downloadable!]
  12. Barry Eichengreen & Ashoka Mody, 2004. "Do Collective Action Clauses Raise Borrowing Costs?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(495), pages 247-264, 04. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Axel Dreher, 2004. "Does the IMF cause moral hazard? A critical review of the evidence," International Finance 0402003, EconWPA, revised 29 Mar 2004. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Oscar Bernal & Kim Oosterlinck & Ariane Szafarz, 2009. "Observing bailout expectations during a total eclipse of the sun," Working Papers DULBEA 09-01.RS, Université libre de Bruxelles, Department of Applied Economics (DULBEA). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Heppke-Falk, Kirsten H. & Wolff, Guntram B., 2007. "Moral hazard and bail-out in fiscal federations: evidence for the German Länder," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2007,07, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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