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Housing submarkets and the impacts of foreclosures on property prices

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  • Biswas, Arnab

Abstract

The dramatic rise in the number of foreclosed properties since 2006 has come to assume the proportions of a national crisis. It is widely acknowledged that foreclosures hurt neighborhoods by devaluing the nearby properties through various channels. This paper offers a new way of conceptualizing and then estimating the potential effects of foreclosures on property values. Housing stock heterogeneity in the central city old neighborhood allows for the possibility that the impacts of nearby foreclosures may differ across types of housing. This study uses a dataset that covers twenty years of housing values from the City of Worcester (MA), and finds evidence that foreclosures of multi-family houses in close proximity influence the sales price of surrounding single-family properties after controlling for impact from foreclosure of nearby single-family houses. The most preferred estimate suggests that each multi-family foreclosure that occurs between 660 and 1320 feet away from the sale lowers the predicted sales price by approximately 3%. Nearby multi-family spillover impacts also persist over time. In addition, a new approach advocating for an alternative definition of housing submarket suggests that a distant foreclosure within the same submarket also lower sales price of a single-family home by 0.1%.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Housing Economics.

Volume (Year): 21 (2012)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 235-245

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jhouse:v:21:y:2012:i:3:p:235-245

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/622881

Related research

Keywords: Foreclosure; Property values; Submarket; Spillover; Neighborhood;

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References

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  1. LeSage, James P., 1997. "Regression Analysis of Spatial Data," Journal of Regional Analysis and Policy, Mid-Continent Regional Science Association, vol. 27(2).
  2. Myles Patton & Seamus McErlean, 2003. "Spatial Effects within the Agricultural Land Market in Northern Ireland," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 54(1), pages 35-54.
  3. Craig A Watkins, 2001. "The definition and identification of housing submarkets," Environment and Planning A, Pion Ltd, London, vol. 33(12), pages 2235-2253, December.
  4. Zhenguo Lin & Eric Rosenblatt & Vincent Yao, 2009. "Spillover Effects of Foreclosures on Neighborhood Property Values," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 38(4), pages 387-407, May.
  5. Tammy Leonard & James Murdoch, 2009. "The neighborhood effects of foreclosure," Journal of Geographical Systems, Springer, vol. 11(4), pages 317-332, December.
  6. Goodman, Allen C. & Thibodeau, Thomas G., 1998. "Housing Market Segmentation," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 121-143, June.
  7. Schuetz, Jenny & Been, Vicki & Ellen, Ingrid Gould, 2008. "Neighborhood effects of concentrated mortgage foreclosures," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 306-319, December.
  8. Steven C. BOURASSA & Martin HOESLI & Vincent S. PENG, 2002. "Do Housing Submarkets Really Matter?," FAME Research Paper Series rp58, International Center for Financial Asset Management and Engineering.
  9. William H. Rogers & William Winter, 2009. "The Impact of Foreclosures on Neighboring Housing Sales," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 31(4), pages 455-480.
  10. Bourassa, Steven C. & Hamelink, Foort & Hoesli, Martin & MacGregor, Bryan D., 1999. "Defining Housing Submarkets," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 160-183, June.
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