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User costs and bubbles in land markets

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  • Schreyer, Paul
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    Abstract

    In asset markets with speculative behavior, the long-run equilibrium relationship between asset prices and the discounted flow of future rents may become invalid. We distinguish short-term user costs and longer-term user costs with variables that reflect fundamentals. We show how to work around the empirical problem of measuring speculative expectations about asset price changes and derive a simple user cost formula where the asset price change in the short-term relationship comes out as the long-run change in the overall price level.

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    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6WJR-4WV15PR-3/2/08d8df7f1d3e65840a890f02c0e404f1
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Housing Economics.

    Volume (Year): 18 (2009)
    Issue (Month): 3 (September)
    Pages: 267-272

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:jhouse:v:18:y:2009:i:3:p:267-272

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/622881

    Related research

    Keywords: Housing bubble User costs Housing fundamentals Speculative behavior Capital theory;

    References

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    1. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Stanley Fischer, 1989. "Lectures on Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262022834, December.
    2. Davis, Morris & Heathcote, Jonathan, 2005. "The Price and Quantity of Residential Land in the United States," CEPR Discussion Papers 5333, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Jorgenson, Dale W. & Nomura, Koji, 2005. "The industry origins of Japanese economic growth," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 482-542, December.
    4. Goodman, Allen C. & Thibodeau, Thomas G., 2008. "Where are the speculative bubbles in US housing markets?," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 117-137, June.
    5. Tirole, Jean, 1982. "On the Possibility of Speculation under Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(5), pages 1163-81, September.
    6. Diewert, W E, 1974. "Intertemporal Consumer Theory and the Demand for Durables," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 42(3), pages 497-516, May.
    7. Randal Verbrugge & Thesia I. Garner, 2009. "Reconciling User Costs and Rental Equivalence: Evidence from the U.S. Consumer Expenditure Survey," Working Papers 427, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
    8. Dale W. Jorgenson & Mun S. Ho & Kevin J. Stiroh, 2005. "Productivity, Volume 3: Information Technology and the American Growth Resurgence," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 3, number 0262101114, December.
    9. Poterba, James M, 1992. "Taxation and Housing: Old Questions, New Answers," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(2), pages 237-42, May.
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    Cited by:
    1. Diewert, Erwin & Shimizu, Chihiro, 2013. "A Conceptual Framework for Commercial Property Price Indexes," HIT-REFINED Working Paper Series 4, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    2. Diewert, W. Erwin & Nakamura, Alice O. & Nakamura, Leonard I., 2009. "The housing bubble and a new approach to accounting for housing in a CPI," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 156-171, September.
    3. Randal Verbrugge & Thesia I. Garner, 2009. "Reconciling User Costs and Rental Equivalence: Evidence from the U.S. Consumer Expenditure Survey," Working Papers 427, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

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