IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jfpoli/v67y2017icp119-132.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Food price seasonality in Africa: Measurement and extent

Author

Listed:
  • Gilbert, Christopher L.
  • Christiaensen, Luc
  • Kaminski, Jonathan

Abstract

Everyone knows about seasonality. But what exactly do we know? This study systematically measures seasonal price gaps at 193 markets for 13 food commodities in seven African countries. It shows that the commonly used dummy variable or moving average deviation methods to estimate the seasonal gap can yield substantial upward bias. This can be partially circumvented using trigonometric and sawtooth models, which are more parsimonious. Among staple crops, seasonality is highest for maize (33 percent on average) and lowest for rice (16½ percent). This is two and a half to three times larger than in the international reference markets. Seasonality varies substantially across market places but maize is the only crop in which there are important systematic country effects. Malawi, where maize is the main staple, emerges as exhibiting the most acute seasonal differences. Reaching the Sustainable Development Goal of Zero Hunger requires renewed policy attention to seasonality in food prices and consumption.

Suggested Citation

  • Gilbert, Christopher L. & Christiaensen, Luc & Kaminski, Jonathan, 2017. "Food price seasonality in Africa: Measurement and extent," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 119-132.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jfpoli:v:67:y:2017:i:c:p:119-132
    DOI: 10.1016/j.foodpol.2016.09.016
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306919216303840
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.foodpol.2016.09.016?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jonathan Kaminski & Luc Christiaensen & Christopher L. Gilbert, 2016. "Seasonality in local food markets and consumption: evidence from Tanzania," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 68(3), pages 736-757.
    2. Dostie, B. & Haggblade, S. & Randriamamonjy, J., 2002. "Seasonal poverty in Madagascar: magnitude and solutions," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 27(5-6), pages 493-518.
    3. Minot, Nicholas, 2014. "Food price volatility in sub-Saharan Africa: Has it really increased?," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 45-56.
    4. Gitonga, Zachary M. & De Groote, Hugo & Kassie, Menale & Tefera, Tadele, 2013. "Impact of metal silos on households’ maize storage, storage losses and food security: An application of a propensity score matching," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 44-55.
    5. World Bank, 2011. "Missing Food : The Case of Postharvest Grain Losses in Sub-Saharan Africa," World Bank Publications - Reports 2824, The World Bank Group.
    6. Muller, Christophe, 2002. "Prices and living standards: evidence for Rwanda," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 187-203, June.
    7. World Bank, 2012. "Responding to Higher and More Volatile World Food Prices," World Bank Publications - Reports 12950, The World Bank Group.
    8. Nelson, Charles R & Kang, Heejoon, 1984. "Pitfalls in the Use of Time as an Explanatory Variable in Regression," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 2(1), pages 73-82, January.
    9. Bjorn Van Campenhout & Els Lecoutere & Ben D'Exelle, 2015. "Inter-Temporal and Spatial Price Dispersion Patterns and the Well-Being of Maize Producers in Southern Tanzania," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 24(2), pages 230-253.
    10. Andrew C. Harvey, 1990. "The Econometric Analysis of Time Series, 2nd Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 2, volume 1, number 026208189x, December.
    11. Ceballos, Francisco & Hernandez, Manuel A. & Minot, Nicholas & Robles, Miguel, 2017. "Grain Price and Volatility Transmission from International to Domestic Markets in Developing Countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 305-320.
    12. Khandker, Shahidur R., 2012. "Seasonality of income and poverty in Bangladesh," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 244-256.
    13. Ellis, Frank & Manda, Elizabeth, 2012. "Seasonal Food Crises and Policy Responses: A Narrative Account of Three Food Security Crises in Malawi," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 40(7), pages 1407-1417.
    14. Christopher Gilbert & Wyn Morgan, 2010. "Has food price volatility risen?," Department of Economics Working Papers 1002, Department of Economics, University of Trento, Italia.
    15. Hirvonen, Kalle & Taffesse, Alemayehu Seyoum & Worku, Ibrahim, 2015. "Seasonality and household diets in Ethiopia:," ESSP working papers 74, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    16. Stefan Dercon & Catherine Porter, 2014. "Live Aid Revisited: Long-Term Impacts Of The 1984 Ethiopian Famine On Children," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 12(4), pages 927-948, August.
    17. Ghysels,Eric & Osborn,Denise R., 2001. "The Econometric Analysis of Seasonal Time Series," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521565882, January.
    18. Goetz, Stephan J. & Weber, Michael T., 1986. "Fundamentals of Price Analysis in Developing Countries' Food Systems: A Training Manual to Accompany the Microcomputer Software Program 'MSTAT'," Food Security International Development Working Papers 54742, Michigan State University, Department of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics.
    19. Stefan Dercon & Pramila Krishnan, 2000. "Vulnerability, seasonality and poverty in Ethiopia," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(6), pages 25-53.
    20. Hirvonen, Kalle & Taffesse, Alemayehu Seyoum & Worku, Ibrahim, 2015. "Synopsis: Seasonality and household diets in Ethiopia," ESSP research notes 42, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    21. Emma C. Stephens & Christopher B. Barrett, 2011. "Incomplete Credit Markets and Commodity Marketing Behaviour," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 62(1), pages 1-24, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Paul Christian & Brian Dillon, 2018. "Growing and Learning When Consumption Is Seasonal: Long-Term Evidence From Tanzania," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 55(3), pages 1091-1118, June.
    2. Bachewe Fantu & Minten Bart & Seyoum Taffesse Alemayehu & Pauw Karl & Cameron Alethia & Genye Endaylalu Tirsit, 2020. "Farmers’ Grain Storage and Losses in Ethiopia," Journal of Agricultural & Food Industrial Organization, De Gruyter, vol. 18(1), pages 1-19, January.
    3. Kate R. Schneider & Luc Christiaensen & Patrick Webb & William A. Masters, 2023. "Assessing the affordability of nutrient‐adequate diets," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 105(2), pages 503-524, March.
    4. Gross, Jeremie & Guirkinger, Catherine & Platteau, Jean-Philippe, 2020. "Buy as you need: Nutrition and food storage imperfections," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    5. Aggarwal, Shilpa & Francis, Eilin & Robinson, Jonathan, 2018. "Grain today, gain tomorrow: Evidence from a storage experiment with savings clubs in Kenya," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 1-15.
    6. Pieters, Hannah & Swinnen, Johan, 2016. "Trading-off volatility and distortions? Food policy during price spikes," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 27-39.
    7. Omotilewa, Oluwatoba J. & Ricker-Gilbert, Jacob & Ainembabazi, John Herbert & Shively, Gerald E., 2018. "Does improved storage technology promote modern input use and food security? Evidence from a randomized trial in Uganda," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 176-198.
    8. Gharad Bryan & Shyamal Chowdhury & Ahmed Mushfiq Mobarak, 2014. "Underinvestment in a Profitable Technology: The Case of Seasonal Migration in Bangladesh," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 82(5), pages 1671-1748, September.
    9. Brander, Michael & Bernauer, Thomas & Huss, Matthias, 2021. "Improved on-farm storage reduces seasonal food insecurity of smallholder farmer households – Evidence from a randomized control trial in Tanzania," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    10. Didier Kadjo & Jacob Ricker‐Gilbert & Tahirou Abdoulaye & Gerald Shively & Mohamed N. Baco, 2018. "Storage losses, liquidity constraints, and maize storage decisions in Benin," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 49(4), pages 435-454, July.
    11. Kayenat Kabir, 2023. "What Do We Know About Drought, Household Consumption and Seasonality: Evidence Review from Sub-Saharan Africa," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 7(3), pages 303-317, November.
    12. Omotilewa, Oluwatoba J. & Ricker-Gilbert, Jacob & Ainembabazi, Herbert & Shively, Gerald, 2016. "Impacts of Improved Storage Technology among Smallholder Farm Households in Uganda," 2016 Fifth International Conference, September 23-26, 2016, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia 246454, African Association of Agricultural Economists (AAAE).
    13. Rosa, Franco & Vasciaveo, Michela & Weaver, Robert D., 2014. "Agricultural and oil commodities: price transmission and market integration between US and Italy," Bio-based and Applied Economics Journal, Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA), vol. 3(2), pages 1-25, August.
    14. Basu, Karna & Wong, Maisy, 2015. "Evaluating seasonal food storage and credit programs in east Indonesia," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 200-216.
    15. Mesay Yami & Ferdi Meyer & Rashid Hassan, 2020. "The impact of production shocks on maize markets in Ethiopia: implications for regional trade and food security," Agricultural and Food Economics, Springer;Italian Society of Agricultural Economics (SIDEA), vol. 8(1), pages 1-25, December.
    16. Vandercasteelen, Joachim & Christiaensen, Luc, 2020. "Breaking down silos: On post-harvest loss interventions in Tanzania," Policy briefs 1247693176, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    17. Kitsuki, Akinori & Sakurai, Takeshi, 2016. "Seasonal Hunger: Heterogenous Impacts of Seasonal Price Changes on Seasonal Consumption in Rural Zambia," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Boston, Massachusetts 235524, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    18. Chegere, Martin Julius, 2018. "Post-harvest losses reduction by small-scale maize farmers: The role of handling practices," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 103-115.
    19. D'Haene, E. & Desiere, S. & D'Haese, M. & Verbeke, W. & Schoors, K., 2018. "Religion, food choices, and demand seasonality: Evidence from the Ethiopian milk market," 2018 Conference, July 28-August 2, 2018, Vancouver, British Columbia 276029, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    20. Martin Julius Chegere & Razack Lokina & Agnes G. Mwakaje, 2020. "The impact of hermetic storage bag supply and training on food security in Tanzania," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 12(6), pages 1299-1316, December.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jfpoli:v:67:y:2017:i:c:p:119-132. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/foodpol .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.