IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jfpoli/v56y2015icp1-12.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Is Indian agriculture becoming resilient to droughts? Evidence from rice production systems

Author

Listed:
  • Birthal, Pratap S.
  • Negi, Digvijay S.
  • Khan, Md. Tajuddin
  • Agarwal, Shaily

Abstract

Drought is one of the major constraints to sustainable improvement of agricultural productivity in the rainfed farming systems. In this paper, we have examined the frequency, severity and spread of droughts in India, and assessed their impact on rice production. Our results show that one-third of the rice area in India is affected by droughts, mostly moderate droughts, the frequency of which has increased in recent years. The severity of droughts, however, has reduced. An assessment of their impact reveals a decline in drought-induced losses in rice yield, in absolute as well as relative terms. The weakening effect of droughts is attributed to improvements in farmers’ adaptive capacity due to expansion of irrigation facilities and increased availability of improved varieties for the rainfed production systems, along with other coping strategies.

Suggested Citation

  • Birthal, Pratap S. & Negi, Digvijay S. & Khan, Md. Tajuddin & Agarwal, Shaily, 2015. "Is Indian agriculture becoming resilient to droughts? Evidence from rice production systems," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 1-12.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jfpoli:v:56:y:2015:i:c:p:1-12
    DOI: 10.1016/j.foodpol.2015.07.005
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306919215000834
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.foodpol.2015.07.005?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Daniel O'Brien & Marvin Hayenga & Bruce Babcock, 1996. "Deriving Forecast Probability Distributions of Harvest-Time Corn Futures Prices," Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 18(2), pages 167-180.
    2. Jacoby, Hanan & Rabassa, Mariano & Skoufias, Emmanuel, 2011. "Distributional implications of climate change in India," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5623, The World Bank.
    3. Dono, Gabriele & Mazzapicchio, Graziano, 2010. "Uncertain water supply in an irrigated Mediterranean area: An analysis of the possible economic impact of climate change on the farm sector," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 103(6), pages 361-370, July.
    4. Robert Mendelsohn & Ariel Dinar, 2009. "Climate Change and Agriculture," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 12990.
    5. Bouman, B.A.M. & Hengsdijk, H. & Hardy, B. & Bindraban, P.S. & Tuong, T.P. & Ladha, J.K., 2002. "Water-wise Rice Production," IRRI Books, International Rice Research Institute (IRRI), number 281822.
    6. Dannele E. Peck & Richard M. Adams, 2010. "Farm-level impacts of prolonged drought: is a multiyear event more than the sum of its parts?," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 54(1), pages 43-60, January.
    7. De Salvo, Maria & Raffaelli, Roberta & Moser, Riccarda, 2013. "The impact of climate change on permanent crops in an Alpine region: A Ricardian analysis," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 23-32.
    8. Tian Yu & Bruce A. Babcock, 2010. "Are U.S. Corn and Soybeans Becoming More Drought Tolerant?," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1310-1323.
    9. K.S. Kavi Kumar, 2009. "Climate Sensitivity Of Indian Agriculture," Development Economics Working Papers 22939, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    10. Munshi, Kaivan, 2004. "Social learning in a heterogeneous population: technology diffusion in the Indian Green Revolution," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 185-213, February.
    11. Genti Kostandini & Bradford F. Mills & Steven Were Omamo & Stanley Wood, 2009. "Ex ante analysis of the benefits of transgenic drought tolerance research on cereal crops in low‐income countries," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 40(4), pages 477-492, July.
    12. Birthal, P.S. & Negi, Digvijay S. & Kumar, Shiv & Aggarwal, Shaily & Suresh, A. & Khan, Md. Tajuddin, 2014. "How Sensitive is Indian Agriculture to Climate Change?," Indian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Indian Society of Agricultural Economics, vol. 69(4), pages 1-14.
    13. Pandey, Sushil & Pal, Suresh, 2007. "Are less-favored environments over-invested? The case of rice research in India," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(5-6), pages 606-623.
    14. Wang Xiao-jun & Zhang Jian-yun & Shamsuddin Shahid & Amgad ElMahdi & He Rui-min & Bao Zhen-xin & Mahtab Ali, 2012. "Water resources management strategy for adaptation to droughts in China," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 17(8), pages 923-937, December.
    15. Pandey, S. & Bhandari, H. & Hardy, B., 2007. "Economic Costs of Drought and Rice Farmers’ Coping Mechanisms: A Cross-Country Comparative Analysis," IRRI Books, International Rice Research Institute (IRRI), number 281814.
    16. Carl Pray & Latha Nagarajan & Luping Li & Jikun Huang & Ruifa Hu & K.N. Selvaraj & Ora Napasintuwong & R. Chandra Babu, 2011. "Potential Impact of Biotechnology on Adaption of Agriculture to Climate Change: The Case of Drought Tolerant Rice Breeding in Asia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 3(10), pages 1-19, September.
    17. Mendelsohn, Robert & Dinar, Ariel & Sanghi, Apurva, 2001. "The effect of development on the climate sensitivity of agriculture," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 6(1), pages 85-101, February.
    18. Mottaleb, Khondoker A. & Rejesus, Roderick M. & Mohanty, Samarendu & Murty, M.V.R. & Li, Tao & Valera, Harold Glenn & Gumma, Murali Krishna, 2012. "Ex Ante Impact Assessment of a Drought Tolerant Rice Variety in the Presence of Climate Change," 2012 Annual Meeting, August 12-14, 2012, Seattle, Washington 124745, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    19. Quiroga, Sonia & Iglesias, Ana, 2009. "A comparison of the climate risks of cereal, citrus, grapevine and olive production in Spain," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 101(1-2), pages 91-100, June.
    20. Joshi, P. K. & Jha, A. K. & Wani, S. P. & Joshi, L. & Shiyani, R. L., 2005. "Meta-analysis to assess impact of watershed program and people’s participation," IWMI Research Reports H037467, International Water Management Institute.
    21. Cline, William R, 1996. "The Impact of Global Warming on Agriculture: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(5), pages 1309-1311, December.
    22. Pradeep Kurukulasuriya & Namrata Kala & Robert Mendelsohn, 2011. "Adaptation And Climate Change Impacts: A Structural Ricardian Model Of Irrigation And Farm Income In Africa," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 2(02), pages 149-174.
    23. Nelson, Gerald C. & Rosegrant, Mark W. & Koo, Jawoo & Robertson, Richard & Sulser, Timothy & Zhu, Tingju & Ringler, Claudia & Msangi, Siwa & Palazzo, Amanda & Batka, Miroslav & Magalhaes, Marilia & Va, 2009. "Climate change: Impact on agriculture and costs of adaptation," Food policy reports 21, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    24. Peck, Dannele E. & Adams, Richard M., 2010. "Farm-level impacts of prolonged drought: is a multiyear event more than the sum of its parts?," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 54(1), pages 1-18.
    25. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and Climate Analytics, 2013. "Turn Down the Heat : Climate Extremes, Regional Impacts, and the Case for Resilience [Bajemos la temperatura : fenómenos climáticos extremos, impactos regionales y posibidades de adaptación - resum," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 14000, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Madhusudan Ghosh, 2019. "Climate-smart Agriculture, Productivity and Food Security in India," Journal of Development Policy and Practice, , vol. 4(2), pages 166-187, July.
    2. Pourzand, Farnaz & Noy, Ilan & Sağlam, Yiğit, 2020. "Droughts and farms’ financial performance: a farm‐level study in New Zealand," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 64(3), July.
    3. P. K. Viswanathan & K. Kavya & Chandra Sekhar Bahinipati, 2020. "Global Patterns of Climate-resilient Agriculture: A Review of Studies and Imperatives for Empirical Research in India," Review of Development and Change, , vol. 25(2), pages 169-192, December.
    4. Khan, M.T. & Joshi, P.K. & Khurana, R. & Kishore, A., 2018. "Evolving Watershed Clusters into Drought-Proof, Climate-Resilient Areas: An Impact Evaluation Study in Maharashtra, India," 2018 Conference, July 28-August 2, 2018, Vancouver, British Columbia 277385, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    5. Yashobanta Parida & Devi Prasad Dash & Parul Bhardwaj & Joyita Roy Chowdhury, 2018. "Effects of Drought and Flood on Farmer Suicides in Indian States: An Empirical Analysis," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 2(2), pages 159-180, July.
    6. Birthal, Pratap S. & Hazrana, Jaweriah & Negi, Digvijay S. & Pandey, Ghanshyam, 2021. "Benefits of irrigation against heat stress in agriculture: Evidence from wheat crop in India," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 255(C).
    7. Birthal, Pratap S. & Hazrana, Jaweriah & Negi, Digvijay S. & Bhan, Subhash C., 2021. "Climate change and land-use in Indian agriculture," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    8. Francisco Pereira Fontes, Ashley Gorst, Charles Palmer, 2017. "Does choice of drought index influence estimates of drought-induced cereal losses in India?," GRI Working Papers 274, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment.
    9. Masoud K. Barati & V. S. Manivasagam & Mohammad Reza Nikoo & Pasoubady Saravanane & Alagappan Narayanan & Sudheesh Manalil, 2022. "Rainfall Variability and Rice Sustainability: An Evaluation Study of Two Distinct Rice-Growing Ecosystems," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(8), pages 1-20, August.
    10. Anubhab Pattanayak & Madhumitha Srinivasan & K. S. Kavi Kumar, 2023. "Crop Diversity and Resilience to Droughts: Evidence from Indian Agriculture," Review of Development and Change, , vol. 28(2), pages 166-188, December.
    11. Pratap S. Birthal & Jaweriah Hazrana & Digvijay S. Negi, 2019. "A multilevel analysis of drought risk in Indian agriculture: implications for managing risk at different geographical levels," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 157(3), pages 499-513, December.
    12. Farnaz Pourzand & Ilan Noy & Yigit Saglam, 2019. "Droughts and farms' financial performance in New Zealand: a micro farm-level study," CESifo Working Paper Series 7633, CESifo.
    13. Tang, Kai & Hailu, Atakelty, 2020. "Smallholder farms’ adaptation to the impacts of climate change: Evidence from China’s Loess Plateau," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    14. Birthal, Pratap S. & Hazrana, Jaweriah, 2019. "Crop diversification and resilience of agriculture to climatic shocks: Evidence from India," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 345-354.
    15. Jhorland Ayala-García & Federico Ceballos-Sierra, 2024. "How do environmental shocks affect competitors in a supply chain? Evidence from a competitors’ weighting matrix," Documentos de trabajo sobre Economía Regional y Urbana 324, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    16. Sandeep Kandikuppa & Clark Gray, 2022. "Climate change and household debt in rural India," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 173(3), pages 1-27, August.
    17. Mangla, Sachin Kumar & Luthra, Sunil & Rich, Nick & Kumar, Divesh & Rana, Nripendra P. & Dwivedi, Yogesh K., 2018. "Enablers to implement sustainable initiatives in agri-food supply chains," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 203(C), pages 379-393.
    18. Birthal, Pratap S. & Hazrana, Jaweriah & Negi, Digvijay S. & Mishra, Ashok K., 2022. "Assessing benefits of crop insurance vis-a-vis irrigation in Indian agriculture," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    19. Fontes, Francisco & Gorst, Ashley & Palmer, Charles, 2020. "Does choice of drought index influence estimates of drought-induced rice losses in India?," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(5), pages 459-481, October.
    20. Hardeep Singh Amale & Pratap Singh Birthal & Digvijay Singh Negi, 2023. "Delayed monsoon, irrigation and crop yields," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 54(1), pages 77-94, January.
    21. Marco Letta & Pierluigi Montalbano & Guillaume Pierre, 2022. "Weather shocks, traders' expectations, and food prices," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 104(3), pages 1100-1119, May.
    22. Kurup, Suresh A. & Reddy, A. Amarender & Singh, Dharm Raj & Praveen, K.V, 2021. "Risks in Rainfed Agriculture and Adaptation Strategies in India: Profile and Socio-Economic Correlates," 2021 Conference, August 17-31, 2021, Virtual 315127, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    23. Pourzand, Farnaz & Noy, Ilan & Sağlam, Yiğit, 2019. "Droughts and farms’ financial performance in New Zealand: A micro farm level study," Working Paper Series 8159, Victoria University of Wellington, School of Economics and Finance.
    24. Akpoti, Komlavi & Dossou-Yovo, Elliott R. & Zwart, Sander J. & Kiepe, Paul, 2021. "The potential for expansion of irrigated rice under alternate wetting and drying in Burkina Faso," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 247(C).
    25. Pratap S. Birthal & Jaweriah Hazrana & Digvijay S. Negi, 2021. "Effectiveness of Farmers’ Risk Management Strategies in Smallholder Agriculture: Evidence from India," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 169(3), pages 1-35, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Birthal, P.S. & Negi, Digvijay S. & Kumar, Shiv & Aggarwal, Shaily & Suresh, A. & Khan, Md. Tajuddin, 2014. "How Sensitive is Indian Agriculture to Climate Change?," Indian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Indian Society of Agricultural Economics, vol. 69(4), pages 1-14.
    2. Birthal, P.S. & Khan, T.M. & Negi, D.S. & Agarwal, S., 2014. "Impact of Climate Change on Yields of Major Food Crops in India: Implications for Food Security," Agricultural Economics Research Review, Agricultural Economics Research Association (India), vol. 27(2).
    3. Farnaz Pourzand & Ilan Noy & Yigit Saglam, 2019. "Droughts and farms' financial performance in New Zealand: a micro farm-level study," CESifo Working Paper Series 7633, CESifo.
    4. Pourzand, Farnaz & Noy, Ilan & Sağlam, Yiğit, 2019. "Droughts and farms’ financial performance in New Zealand: A micro farm level study," Working Paper Series 8159, Victoria University of Wellington, School of Economics and Finance.
    5. Pourzand, Farnaz & Noy, Ilan & Sağlam, Yiğit, 2020. "Droughts and farms’ financial performance: a farm‐level study in New Zealand," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 64(3), July.
    6. K.S. Kavi Kumar & Kamal Karunagoda & Enamul Haque & L. Venkatachelam & Girish Nath Bahal, 2012. "Addressing Long-term Challenges to Food Security and Rural Livelihoods in South Asia," Working Papers 2012-075, Madras School of Economics,Chennai,India.
    7. Moretti, Michele & Vanschoenwinkel, Janka & Van Passel, Steven, 2021. "Accounting for externalities in cross-sectional economic models of climate change impacts," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 185(C).
    8. Martina Bozzola & Emanuele Massetti & Robert Mendelsohn & Fabian Capitanio, 2018. "A Ricardian analysis of the impact of climate change on Italian agriculture," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 45(1), pages 57-79.
    9. Gil, Marina & Garrido, Alberto & Gómez-Ramos, Almudena, 2011. "Economic analysis of drought risk: An application for irrigated agriculture in Spain," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 98(5), pages 823-833, March.
    10. Steven Passel & Emanuele Massetti & Robert Mendelsohn, 2017. "A Ricardian Analysis of the Impact of Climate Change on European Agriculture," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 67(4), pages 725-760, August.
    11. Jha, Brajesh & Tripathi, Amarnath, 2011. "Isn’t Climate Change Affecting Wheat Productivity in India?," Indian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Indian Society of Agricultural Economics, vol. 66(3), pages 1-12.
    12. Fernández, Francisco J. & Blanco, Maria, 2015. "Modelling the economic impacts of climate change on global and European agriculture: Review of economic structural approaches," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 9, pages 1-53.
    13. Catherine Benjamin & Ewen Gallic, 2017. "Effects of Climate Change on Agriculture: a European case study," Economics Working Paper Archive (University of Rennes 1 & University of Caen) 2017-16, Center for Research in Economics and Management (CREM), University of Rennes 1, University of Caen and CNRS.
    14. Connor, Jeffery D. & Kandulu, John M. & Bark, Rosalind H., 2014. "Irrigation revenue loss in Murray–Darling Basin drought: An econometric assessment," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 163-170.
    15. Trong Anh Trinh, 2018. "The Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture: Findings from Households in Vietnam," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 71(4), pages 897-921, December.
    16. Pratap S. Birthal & Jaweriah Hazrana & Digvijay S. Negi, 2019. "A multilevel analysis of drought risk in Indian agriculture: implications for managing risk at different geographical levels," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 157(3), pages 499-513, December.
    17. Alejandro Lopez-Feldman, 2013. "Climate change, agriculture, and poverty: A household level analysis for rural Mexico," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(2), pages 1126-1139.
    18. Jayatilleke S. Bandara & Yiyong Cai, 2014. "The impact of climate change on food crop productivity, food prices and food security in South Asia," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(4), pages 451-465.
    19. Bastian, Christopher T. & Gray, Stephen T. & Peck, Dannele E. & Ritten, John P. & Hansen, Kristiana M. & Krall, James M. & Paisley, Steven I., 2011. "The Nature of Climate Science for the Rocky Mountain West: Implications for Economists Trying to Help Agriculture Adapt," Western Economics Forum, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 10(2), pages 1-10.
    20. Coderoni, Silvia & Pagliacci, Francesco, 2023. "The impact of climate change on land productivity. A micro-level assessment for Italian farms," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 205(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jfpoli:v:56:y:2015:i:c:p:1-12. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/foodpol .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.