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Reduced-form valuation of callable corporate bonds: Theory and evidence

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  • Jarrow, Robert
  • Li, Haitao
  • Liu, Sheen
  • Wu, Chunchi

Abstract

We develop a reduced-form approach for valuing callable corporate bonds by characterizing the call probability via an intensity process. Asymmetric information and market frictions justify the existence of a call-arrival intensity from the market's perspective. Our approach both extends the reduced-form model of Duffie and Singleton (1999) for defaultable bonds to callable bonds and captures some important differences between call and default decisions. A comprehensive empirical analysis of callable bonds using both our model and the more traditional American option approach for valuing callable bonds shows that the reduced-form model fits callable bond prices well and that it outperforms the traditional approach both in- and out-of-sample.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Financial Economics.

Volume (Year): 95 (2010)
Issue (Month): 2 (February)
Pages: 227-248

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jfinec:v:95:y:2010:i:2:p:227-248

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505576

Related research

Keywords: Callable bond Reduced-form model Affine models;

References

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  1. Darrell Duffie & Lasse Heje Pedersen & Kenneth J. Singleton, 2003. "Modeling Sovereign Yield Spreads: A Case Study of Russian Debt," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(1), pages 119-159, 02.
  2. Acharya, Viral V & Carpenter, Jennifer, 2002. "Corporate Bond Valuation and Hedging with Stochastic Interest Rates and Endogenous Bankruptcy," CEPR Discussion Papers 3328, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Stanton, Richard, 1995. "Rational Prepayment and the Valuation Mortgage-Backed Securities," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 8(3), pages 677-708.
  4. Edwin J. Elton, 2001. "Explaining the Rate Spread on Corporate Bonds," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(1), pages 247-277, 02.
  5. Xavier Gabaix & Arvind Krishnamurthy & Olivier Vigneron, 2005. "Limits of Arbitrage: Theory and Evidence from the Mortgage-Backed Securities Market," NBER Working Papers 11851, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Jarrow, Robert A & Turnbull, Stuart M, 1995. " Pricing Derivatives on Financial Securities Subject to Credit Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(1), pages 53-85, March.
  7. Chava, Sudheer & Jarrow, Robert, 2008. "Modeling loan commitments," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 11-20, March.
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  9. Umut Cetin & Robert Jarrow & Philip Protter & Yildiray Yildirim, 2004. "Modeling Credit Risk with Partial Information," Papers math/0407060, arXiv.org.
  10. Darrell Duffie & Jun Pan & Kenneth Singleton, 1999. "Transform Analysis and Asset Pricing for Affine Jump-Diffusions," NBER Working Papers 7105, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Longstaff, Francis A & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 2001. "Valuing American Options by Simulation: A Simple Least-Squares Approach," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt43n1k4jb, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
  12. Duffie, Darrell & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1999. "Modeling Term Structures of Defaultable Bonds," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(4), pages 687-720.
  13. Duffie, Darrell & Lando, David, 2001. "Term Structures of Credit Spreads with Incomplete Accounting Information," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 69(3), pages 633-64, May.
  14. Duffee, Gregory R, 1999. "Estimating the Price of Default Risk," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(1), pages 197-226.
  15. Vu, Joseph D., 1986. "An empirical investigation of calls of non-convertible bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 235-265, June.
  16. Qiang Dai & Kenneth Singleton, 2003. "Term Structure Dynamics in Theory and Reality," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 16(3), pages 631-678, July.
  17. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
  18. Longstaff, Francis A, 1992. "Are Negative Option Prices Possible? The Callable U.S. Treasury-Bond Puzzle," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 65(4), pages 571-92, October.
  19. Jones, E Philip & Mason, Scott P & Rosenfeld, Eric, 1984. " Contingent Claims Analysis of Corporate Capital Structures: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(3), pages 611-25, July.
  20. Duffie, Darrell & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1997. " An Econometric Model of the Term Structure of Interest-Rate Swap Yields," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(4), pages 1287-1321, September.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Dias, José Carlos & Shackleton, Mark B., 2011. "Hysteresis effects under CIR interest rates," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 211(3), pages 594-600, June.
  2. Jarrow, Robert A., 2011. "Credit market equilibrium theory and evidence: Revisiting the structural versus reduced form credit risk model debate," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 2-7, March.
  3. Chen, Bin & Hong, Yongmiao, 2011. "Generalized spectral testing for multivariate continuous-time models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 164(2), pages 268-293, October.
  4. João Nunes, 2011. "American options and callable bonds under stochastic interest rates and endogenous bankruptcy," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 14(3), pages 283-332, October.
  5. Chen, Peimin & Wu, Chunchi, 2014. "Default prediction with dynamic sectoral and macroeconomic frailties," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 211-226.
  6. Qi, Howard & Liu, Sheen & Wu, Chunchi, 2010. "Structural models of corporate bond pricing with personal taxes," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(7), pages 1700-1718, July.
  7. Kimmel, Robert L., 2007. "Complex Times: Asset Pricing and Conditional Moments under Non-affine Diffusions," Working Paper Series 2007-6, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics.

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