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The disparity between long-term and short-term forecasted earnings growth

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  • Da, Zhi
  • Warachka, Mitch

Abstract

We find the disparity between long-term and short-term analyst forecasted earnings growth is a robust predictor of future returns and long-term analyst forecast errors. After adjusting for industry characteristics, stocks whose long-term earnings growth forecasts are far above or far below their implied short-term forecasts for earnings growth have negative and positive subsequent risk-adjusted returns along with downward and upward revisions in long-term forecasted earnings growth, respectively. Additional results indicate that investor inattention toward firm-level changes in long-term earnings growth is responsible for these risk-adjusted returns.

Suggested Citation

  • Da, Zhi & Warachka, Mitch, 2011. "The disparity between long-term and short-term forecasted earnings growth," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(2), pages 424-442, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jfinec:v:100:y:2011:i:2:p:424-442
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    Cited by:

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    3. Hou, Kewei & Xue, Chen & Zhang, Lu, 2017. "Replicating Anomalies," Working Paper Series 2017-10, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics.
    4. Ruyun (Ivy) Feng & Michael D. Kimbrough & Sijing Wei, 2022. "The role of information transparency in the product market: an examination of the sustainability of profitability differences," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 27(2), pages 668-705, June.
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    6. Lorenzo Casavecchia & Gerhard Hambusch & Justin Hitchen, 2022. "The impact of analyst forecast errors on fundamental indexation: the Australian evidence," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 23(5), pages 400-418, September.
    7. Choi, Hae Mi & Gupta-Mukherjee, Swasti, 2022. "Analysts’ reliance on industry-level versus firm-specific information: Implications for information production," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    8. Rouen, Ethan & So, Eric C. & Wang, Charles C.Y., 2021. "Core earnings: New data and evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(3), pages 1068-1091.
    9. Atif Ellahie, 2021. "Earnings beta," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 26(1), pages 81-122, March.
    10. Andrew Y. Chen & Tom Zimmermann, 2022. "Open Source Cross-Sectional Asset Pricing," Critical Finance Review, now publishers, vol. 11(2), pages 207-264, May.
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    12. Ye Li & Chen Wang, 2023. "Valuation Duration of the Stock Market," Papers 2310.07110, arXiv.org.

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