The dynamics of efficient asset trading with heterogeneous beliefs
AbstractThis paper analyzes the dynamic properties of portfolios that sustain dynamically complete markets equilibrium when agents have heterogeneous priors. We argue that the conventional wisdom that belief heterogeneity generates continuous trade and significant fluctuations in individual portfolios may be correct but it needs some qualifications. We consider an infinite horizon stochastic endowment economy populated by many Bayesian agents with heterogeneous priors over the stochastic process of the states of nature. Our approach hinges on studying the portfolios that decentralize Pareto optimal allocations. Since these allocations are typically history dependent, we propose a methodology to provide a complete recursive characterization when agents believe that the process of states of nature is i.i.d. but disagree about the probability of the states. We show that even though heterogeneous priors within that class can indeed generate genuine changes in the portfolios of any dynamically complete markets equilibrium, these changes vanish with probability one if the true process consists of i.i.d. draws from a common distribution and the support of some agent's prior belief contains the true distribution. Finally, we provide examples in which asset trading does not vanish because either (i) no agent learns the true conditional probability of the states or (ii) some agent does not know the true process generating the data is i.i.d.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Economic Theory.
Volume (Year): 146 (2011)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/622869
Heterogeneous beliefs Asset trading Dynamically complete markets;
Other versions of this item:
- Pablo F Beker & Emilio Espino, 2007. "The Dynamics of Efficient Asset Trading with Heterogeneous Beliefs," Levine's Bibliography 122247000000001715, UCLA Department of Economics.
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Morris, Stephen, 1995. "The Common Prior Assumption in Economic Theory," Economics and Philosophy, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(02), pages 227-253, October.
- Stephen Morris, .
""Speculative Investor Behavior and Learning'',"
CARESS Working Papres
95-13, University of Pennsylvania Center for Analytic Research and Economics in the Social Sciences.
- Blume, Lawrence & Easley, David, 2009. "The market organism: Long-run survival in markets with heterogeneous traders," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 1023-1035, May.
- Cogley, Timothy & Sargent, Thomas J., 2008. "The market price of risk and the equity premium: A legacy of the Great Depression?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 454-476, April.
- Abreu, Dilip & Pearce, David & Stacchetti, Ennio, 1990. "Toward a Theory of Discounted Repeated Games with Imperfect Monitoring," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(5), pages 1041-63, September.
- Phillips, Peter C B & Ploberger, Werner, 1996. "An Asymptotic Theory of Bayesian Inference for Time Series," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(2), pages 381-412, March.
- Lawrence Blume & David Easley, 2001.
"If You're So Smart, Why Aren't You Rich? Belief Selection in Complete and Incomplete Markets,"
01-06-031, Santa Fe Institute.
- Lawrence Blume & David Easley, 2006. "If You're so Smart, why Aren't You Rich? Belief Selection in Complete and Incomplete Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(4), pages 929-966, 07.
- Larry Blume & David Easley, 2001. "If You're So Smart, Why Aren't You Rich? Belief Selection in Complete and Incomplete Markets," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1319, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Lucas, Robert Jr. & Stokey, Nancy L., 1984.
"Optimal growth with many consumers,"
Journal of Economic Theory,
Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 139-171, February.
- Easley, David & Kiefer, Nicholas M, 1988. "Controlling a Stochastic Process with Unknown Parameters," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(5), pages 1045-64, September.
- Harrison, J Michael & Kreps, David M, 1978. "Speculative Investor Behavior in a Stock Market with Heterogeneous Expectations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 92(2), pages 323-36, May.
- Emilio Espino & Thomas Hintermaier, 2009.
"Asset trading volume in a production economy,"
Springer, vol. 39(2), pages 231-258, May.
- Harris, Milton & Raviv, Artur, 1993. "Differences of Opinion Make a Horse Race," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(3), pages 473-506.
- Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1978. "Asset Prices in an Exchange Economy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1429-45, November.
- Harrison Hong & Jeremy C. Stein, 2007.
"Disagreement and the Stock Market,"
Journal of Economic Perspectives,
American Economic Association, vol. 21(2), pages 109-128, Spring.
- Dilip Abreu & David Pearce & Ennio Stacchetti, 2010. "Towards a Theory of Discounted Repeated Games with Imperfect Monitoring," Levine's Working Paper Archive 199, David K. Levine.
- Boud, John III, 1990. "Recursive utility and the Ramsey problem," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 326-345, April.
- Beker, Pablo & Subir Chattopadhyay, 2009.
"Consumption Dynamics in General Equilibrium : A Characterisation when Markets are Incomplete,"
The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS)
921, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
- Beker, Pablo & Chattopadhyay, Subir, 2010. "Consumption dynamics in general equilibrium: A characterisation when markets are incomplete," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 145(6), pages 2133-2185, November.
- Emilio Espino & Juan M. Sanchez, 2010. "Risk sharing, investment, and incentives in the neoclassical growth model," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue 4Q, pages 399-416.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.