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Monetary policy under a fiscal theory of sovereign default

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  • Schabert, Andreas

Abstract

This paper examines equilibrium determination under different monetary policy regimes when the government might default on its debt. We apply a cash-in-advance model where the government does not have access to non-distortionary taxation and does not account for initial outstanding debt when it sets the income tax rate. Solvency is then not guaranteed and sovereign default can affect the return on public debt. If the central bank sets the interest rate in a conventional way, the equilibrium allocation cannot be determined. If, instead, money supply is controlled, the equilibrium allocation can uniquely be determined.

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  • Schabert, Andreas, 2010. "Monetary policy under a fiscal theory of sovereign default," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 145(2), pages 860-868, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jetheo:v:145:y:2010:i:2:p:860-868
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    9. Taylor, John B. (ed.), 2001. "Monetary Policy Rules," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, edition 1, number 9780226791258, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Eric M. Leeper & Todd B. Walker, 2011. "Fiscal Limits in Advanced Economies," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 30(1), pages 33-47, March.
    2. Juessen, Falko & Linnemann, Ludger & Schabert, Andreas, 2016. "Default Risk Premia On Government Bonds In A Quantitative Macroeconomic Model," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(1), pages 380-403, January.
    3. Eiji Okano & Masataka Eguchi, 2020. "The importance of default risk awareness in conducting monetary and fiscal policies," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 10(3), pages 361-392, September.
    4. Eric M. Leeper & Todd B. Walker, 2012. "Perceptions and Misperceptions of Fiscal Inflation," NBER Chapters, in: Fiscal Policy after the Financial Crisis, pages 255-299, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Guo, Yanling, 2015. "A reconsideration of multiple equilibria in the analysis of one-period government bonds with default risk," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 9, pages 1-52.
    6. Stefan Niemann & Paul Pichler & Gerhard Sorger, 2013. "Central Bank Independence And The Monetary Instrument Problem," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 54(3), pages 1031-1055, August.
    7. Schabert, Andreas, 2011. "Exchange rate policy under sovereign default risk," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 112(2), pages 179-181, August.
    8. Daniel, Betty C. & Shiamptanis, Christos, 2012. "Fiscal risk in a monetary union," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(6), pages 1289-1309.
    9. Sokolova, Anna, 2015. "Fiscal limits and monetary policy: default vs. inflation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 189-198.
    10. Christos Shiamptanis, 2012. "Risk Assessment Under a Non-linear Fiscal Rule," Working Papers 038, Ryerson University, Department of Economics.
    11. Bello, Abdulmajeed Kumo & Joshua Adams Ndako & Yusuf, Fadimah & Amodu Amina Ejura, 2023. "Fiscal Dominance and Monetary Policy Efficacy in Nigeria," International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science, International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science (IJRISS), vol. 7(10), pages 857-877, October.
    12. Harashima, Taiji, 2021. "The Root Cause of Sovereign Default," MPRA Paper 110010, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Christos Shiamptanis, 2015. "Risk Assessment Under A Nonlinear Fiscal Policy Rule," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 53(3), pages 1539-1555, July.
    14. Nikolai Stähler, 2013. "Recent Developments In Quantitative Models Of Sovereign Default," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(4), pages 605-633, September.
    15. Guo, Yanling, 2015. "The role of lenders' trust in determining borrowing conditions for sovereign debt: An analysis of one-period government bonds with default risk," Economics Discussion Papers 2015-30, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    16. Döhrn, Roland & Barabas, György & Gebhardt, Heinz & Kitlinski, Tobias & Micheli, Martin & Schmidt, Torsten & Vosen, Simeon & Zwick, Lina, 2012. "Die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung im Inland: Gedämpfte Expansion bei hohen Risiken," RWI Konjunkturberichte, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, vol. 63(2), pages 41-97.
    17. Roland Döhrn & György Barabas & Heinz Gebhardt & Tobias Kitlinski & Martin Micheli & Torsten Schmidt & Simeon Vosen & Lina Zwick, 2012. "Die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung im Inland: Gedämpfte Expansion bei hohen Risiken," RWI Konjunkturbericht, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, pages 57, 09.
    18. Michel Guillard & Hubert Kempf (Ecole Normale de Cachan & université Paris-Saclay), 2016. "Sovereign default and public debt sustainability," EcoMod2016 9696, EcoMod.
    19. repec:wlu:lcerpa:wm0070 is not listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Equilibrium determination Interest rate policy Money supply Public debt Sovereign default;

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy

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