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Gold prices, cost of carry, and expected inflation

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  • Blose, Laurence E.
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    Abstract

    How do changes in expected inflation affect gold prices? Using unexpected changes in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) this paper shows that surprises in the CPI do not affect gold spot prices. The results indicate that investors anticipating changes in inflation expectations should design speculation strategies in the bond markets rather than the gold markets. Additionally, investors cannot determine market inflation expectations by examining the price of gold.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Economics and Business.

    Volume (Year): 62 (2010)
    Issue (Month): 1 (January)
    Pages: 35-47

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:jebusi:v:62:y:2010:i:1:p:35-47

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jeconbus

    Related research

    Keywords: Inflation Bond yield Gold Cost of carry;

    References

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    Citations

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    Cited by:
    1. Baur, Dirk G. & Glover, Kristoffer J., 2014. "Heterogeneous expectations in the gold market: Specification and estimation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 116-133.
    2. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Tahir, Mohammad Iqbal & Ali, Imran, 2013. "Is Gold Investment A Hedge against Inflation in Pakistan? A Cointegtaion and Causality Analysis in the Presence of Structural Breaks," MPRA Paper 47924, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 Jul 2013.
    3. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Tahir, Mohammad Iqbal & Ali, Imran & Rehman, Ijaz Ur, 2014. "Is gold investment a hedge against inflation in Pakistan? A co-integration and causality analysis in the presence of structural breaks," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 190-205.
    4. Tsolas, Ioannis E., 2014. "Precious metal mutual fund performance appraisal using DEA modeling," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 54-60.
    5. Pierdzioch, Christian & Risse, Marian & Rohloff, Sebastian, 2014. "The international business cycle and gold-price fluctuations," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 292-305.
    6. Reboredo, Juan C., 2013. "Is gold a hedge or safe haven against oil price movements?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 130-137.
    7. Virginie Coudert & Hélène Raymond, 2010. "Gold and Financial Assets: Are There Any Safe Havens in Bear Markets?," Working Papers 2010-13, CEPII research center.
    8. Antunes, João Marques & Fuinhas, José Alberto & Marques, António Cardoso, 2014. "Modelização VAR da volatilidade dos preços do ouro e dos índices dos mercados financeiros
      [Modelling the volatility of gold prices and financial stock indexes: a VAR approach]
      ," MPRA Paper 57017, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Joscha Beckmann & Robert Czudaj, 2013. "Oil and gold price dynamics in a multivariate cointegration framework," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 10(3), pages 453-468, September.
    10. Thi Hong Van Hoang, 2012. "Has gold been a hedge against inflation in France from 1949 to 2011? Empirical evidence of the French specificity," Working Papers 12-05, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC).
    11. Reboredo, Juan C., 2013. "Is gold a safe haven or a hedge for the US dollar? Implications for risk management," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 2665-2676.
    12. Baur, Dirk G., 2013. "The autumn effect of gold," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 1-11.

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