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Survey response in probabilistic questions and its impact on inference

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  • de Bresser, Jochem
  • van Soest, Arthur

Abstract

We develop a panel data model of expectations of a continuous outcome variable elicited on a percentage-chance scale. The model explains the location and dispersion of the subjective distributions by socio-economic covariates and unobserved factors. Moreover, it accounts explicitly for non-response, non-informative focal answers, and recall and rounding errors. We apply the model to the expected retirement income replacement rate of Dutch wage workers. We find that incorporating these features of the answering process increases the size and significance of relationships with covariates. The estimates indicate substantial rounding but few focal answers. Respondents tend to stick to a certain answering strategy: non-response, rounding and especially non-informative focal answers are characterized by substantial unobserved heterogeneity across individuals.

Suggested Citation

  • de Bresser, Jochem & van Soest, Arthur, 2013. "Survey response in probabilistic questions and its impact on inference," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 65-84.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jeborg:v:96:y:2013:i:c:p:65-84
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jebo.2013.09.012
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. van Santen, Peter & Alessie, Rob & Kalwij, Adriaan, 2012. "Probabilistic survey questions and incorrect answers: Retirement income replacement rates," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 82(1), pages 267-280.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. van Santen, Peter, 2016. "Uncertain pension income and household saving," Working Paper Series 330, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    2. Peter van Santen, 2019. "Uncertain Pension Income and Household Saving," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 65(4), pages 908-929, December.
    3. L. Bissonnette & J. de Bresser, 2018. "Eliciting Subjective Survival Curves: Lessons from Partial Identification," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(3), pages 505-515, July.
    4. Niu, G., 2014. "Essays on subjective expectations and mortality trends," Other publications TiSEM b9f72836-d8ad-478b-adca-4, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    5. de Bresser, Jochem, 2019. "Measuring subjective survival expectations – Do response scales matter?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 136-156.
    6. Pamela Giustinelli, 2022. "Expectations in Education: Framework, Elicitation, and Evidence," Working Papers 2022-026, Human Capital and Economic Opportunity Working Group.
    7. de Bresser, Jochem, 2019. "Measuring Subjective Survival Expectations : Do Response Scales Matter?," Other publications TiSEM 53bc2ec3-4126-4dfb-81f3-8, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    8. de Bresser, Jochem, 2021. "Evaluating the Accuracy of Counterfactuals The Role of Heterogeneous Expectations in Life Cycle Models," Discussion Paper 2021-034, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    9. de Bresser, Jochem, 2019. "The Role of Heterogeneous Expectations in Life Cycle Models : Evaluating the Accuracy of Counterfactuals," Other publications TiSEM 25d04a47-1020-47eb-ba94-4, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    10. de Bresser, Jochem, 2016. "Test-Retest Reliability of Subjective Survival Expectations," Other publications TiSEM dfd6074d-31ae-4ecb-be25-6, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    11. Luc Bissonnette & Arthur van Soest, 2015. "The Financial Crisis and Consumers' Income and Pension Expectations," Cahiers de recherche 1502, Chaire de recherche Industrielle Alliance sur les enjeux économiques des changements démographiques.
    12. de Bresser, Jochem, 2021. "Evaluating the Accuracy of Counterfactuals The Role of Heterogeneous Expectations in Life Cycle Models," Other publications TiSEM a7e2b4d8-fed0-4e86-926f-d, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Expectations; Survey response; Rounding; Recall error; Unobserved heterogeneity; Aging;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C81 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Microeconomic Data; Data Access
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • J14 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of the Elderly; Economics of the Handicapped; Non-Labor Market Discrimination

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