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Information aggregation and belief elicitation in experimental parimutuel betting markets

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  • Koessler, Frédéric
  • Noussair, Charles
  • Ziegelmeyer, Anthony

Abstract

This paper studies the impact of belief elicitation on informational efficiency and individual behavior in experimental parimutuel betting markets. In one treatment, groups of eight participants, who possess a private signal about the eventual outcome, play a sequential betting game. The second treatment is identical, except that bettors are observed by eight other participants who submit incentivized beliefs about the winning probabilities of each outcome. In the third treatment, the same individuals make bets and assess the winning probabilities of the outcomes. Market probabilities more accurately reflect objective probabilities in the third than in the other two treatments. Submitting beliefs reduces the favorite-longshot bias and making bets improves the accuracy of elicited beliefs. A level-k framework provides some insights about why belief elicitation improves the capacity of betting markets to aggregate information.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization.

Volume (Year): 83 (2012)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 195-208

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jeborg:v:83:y:2012:i:2:p:195-208

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jebo

Related research

Keywords: Parimutuel betting; Information aggregation; Favorite-longshot bias; Elicited beliefs; Level-k reasoning; Experiment;

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References

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Cited by:
  1. Noussair, C.N. & Tucker, S., 2013. "Experimental Research On Asset Pricing," Discussion Paper 2013-020, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  2. Karl Schlag & James Tremewan & Joel van der Weele, 2014. "A Penny for Your Thoughts:A Survey of Methods for Eliciting Beliefs," Vienna Economics Papers 1401, University of Vienna, Department of Economics.

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