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A new test for chaos and determinism based on symbolic dynamics

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  • Matilla-García, Mariano
  • Marín, Manuel Ruiz

Abstract

Abstract We propose a novel test to determine, given a time series, if the dynamics are generated by a deterministic (including low dimensional chaos), rather than a stochastic, process. In addition, we introduce a new nonparametric bootstrap test for independence which is consistent against a broad class of alternatives. The conditions under which the tests can be applied are very weak. The advantages of the presented methods are simplicity, invariance with respect to monotonic transformations and the applicability of the tests regardless of the discrete or continuous nature of the data generating process. We conduct several simulation studies to evaluate the performance of our tests on well-known dynamic processes. Finally, our tests are applied to several sets of financial returns that have been recently studied.

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File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6V8F-514BPC4-2/2/4c80d5f23b03ba79cb401cbf5a11cdb4
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization.

Volume (Year): 76 (2010)
Issue (Month): 3 (December)
Pages: 600-614

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jeborg:v:76:y:2010:i:3:p:600-614

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jebo

Related research

Keywords: Chaos Determinism Entropy Financial time series analysis Symbolic analysis;

References

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  1. Kyrtsou, Catherine & Serletis, Apostolos, 2006. "Univariate tests for nonlinear structure," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 154-168, March.
  2. repec:att:wimass:9621 is not listed on IDEAS
  3. Mototsugu Shintani & Oliver Linton, 2003. "Nonparametric neural network estimation of Lyapunov exponents and a direct test for chaos," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 2097, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  4. Brock, William A. & Hommes, Cars H., 1998. "Heterogeneous beliefs and routes to chaos in a simple asset pricing model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(8-9), pages 1235-1274, August.
  5. Scheinkman, Jose A & LeBaron, Blake, 1989. "Nonlinear Dynamics and Stock Returns," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 62(3), pages 311-37, July.
  6. Mariano Matilla-García, 2007. "Nonlinear Dynamics in Energy Futures," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 7-30.
  7. Szpiro, George G., 1994. "Exchange rate speculation and chaos inducing intervention," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 363-368, August.
  8. Maasoumi, Esfandiar & Racine, Jeff, 2002. "Entropy and predictability of stock market returns," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 107(1-2), pages 291-312, March.
  9. William A. Barnett & A. Ronald Gallant & Melvin J. Hinich & Jochen A. Jungeilges & Daniel T. Kaplan & Mark J. Jensen, 1996. "A Single-Blind Controlled Competition among Tests for Nonlinearity and Chaos," Econometrics 9602005, EconWPA, revised 20 Sep 1996.
  10. Gilmore, Claire G., 1993. "A new test for chaos," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 209-237, October.
  11. Hommes, Cars H. & Manzan, Sebastiano, 2006. "Comments on "Testing for nonlinear structure and chaos in economic time series"," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 169-174, March.
  12. Simón Sosvilla-Rivero & Fernando Fernández-Rodriguez & Julián Andrada-Félix, 2005. "Testing chaotic dynamics via Lyapunov exponents," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(7), pages 911-930.
  13. Yongmiao Hong & Halbert White, 2005. "Asymptotic Distribution Theory for Nonparametric Entropy Measures of Serial Dependence," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 73(3), pages 837-901, 05.
  14. Brock, William A. & Sayers, Chera L., 1988. "Is the business cycle characterized by deterministic chaos?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 71-90, July.
  15. C. W. Granger & E. Maasoumi & J. Racine, 2004. "A Dependence Metric for Possibly Nonlinear Processes," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(5), pages 649-669, 09.
  16. De Grauwe, Paul & Grimaldi, Marianna, 2006. "Exchange rate puzzles: A tale of switching attractors," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 1-33, January.
  17. Frank, Murray Z. & Stengos, Thanasis, 1988. "Some evidence concerning macroeconomic chaos," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 423-438.
  18. M. Matilla-GarcÍa & R. Queralt & P. Sanz & F. VÁzquez, 2004. "A Generalized BDS Statistic," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 24(3), pages 277-300, September.
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Cited by:
  1. Elsinger, Helmut, 2013. "Comment on: A new test for chaos and determinism based on symbolic dynamics," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 131-138.

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