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Lottery markets design, micro-structure, and macro-behavior: An ACE approach

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  • Chen, Shu-Heng
  • Chie, Bin-Tzong

Abstract

An agent-based computational modeling of the lottery market is established in this paper to study the design issue, in terms of the lottery tax rate, as well as the emerging market behavior. By using genetic algorithms and fuzzy logic, lottery participants are modeled as autonomous agents who may endogenously adapt to exhibit behavioral properties consistent with well-noticed behavior of lottery markets. Three major findings are presented. First, as anticipated, a Laffer curve is found in this model; nonetheless, the Laffer curve has a flat top, which indicates the non-uniqueness of the optimal lottery tax rate. Second, conscious selection behavior is also observed, but it becomes weaker as time goes on. Third, for the halo effect, we observe exactly the opposite. Each of these three findings are then compared with available empirical results, and the mechanism of genetic algorithms is further examined in light of the anti-halo effect.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization.

Volume (Year): 67 (2008)
Issue (Month): 2 (August)
Pages: 463-480

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jeborg:v:67:y:2008:i:2:p:463-480

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References

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  1. Walker, Ian & Young, Juliet, 2001. "An Economist's Guide to Lottery Design," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 111(475), pages F700-722, November.
  2. Roger Hartley & Lisa Farrell, 2002. "Can Expected Utility Theory Explain Gambling?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(3), pages 613-624, June.
  3. John Duffy, 2004. "Agent-Based Models and Human Subject Experiments," Computational Economics 0412001, EconWPA.
  4. Lettau, Martin, 1997. "Explaining the facts with adaptive agents: The case of mutual fund flows," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 21(7), pages 1117-1147, June.
  5. Beenstock, Michael & Goldin, Ephraim & Haitovsky, Yoel, 2000. "What jackpot? The optimal lottery tax," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 655-671, November.
  6. Brenner, Thomas, 2006. "Agent Learning Representation: Advice on Modelling Economic Learning," Handbook of Computational Economics, in: Leigh Tesfatsion & Kenneth L. Judd (ed.), Handbook of Computational Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 18, pages 895-947 Elsevier.
  7. Farrell, Lisa & Walker, Ian, 1999. "The welfare effects of lotto: evidence from the UK," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(1), pages 99-120, April.
  8. Shu-Heng Chen & Chung-Ching Tai, 2006. "Republication: On the Selection of Adaptive Algorithms in ABM: A Computational-Equivalence Approach," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 28(4), pages 313-331, November.
  9. Farrell, Lisa, et al, 2000. "The Demand for Lotto: The Role of Conscious Selection," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 18(2), pages 228-41, April.
  10. LeBaron, Blake, 2006. "Agent-based Computational Finance," Handbook of Computational Economics, in: Leigh Tesfatsion & Kenneth L. Judd (ed.), Handbook of Computational Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 24, pages 1187-1233 Elsevier.
  11. Shu-Heng Chen & Chung-Ching Tai, 2006. "On the Selection of Adaptive Algorithms in ABM: A Computational-Equivalence Approach," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 28(1), pages 51-69, August.
  12. Farrell, Lisa & Morgenroth, Edgar & Walker, Ian, 1999. " A Time Series Analysis of U.K. Lottery Sales: Long and Short Run Price Elasticities," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(4), pages 513-26, November.
  13. Mikesell, John L., 1994. "State Lottery Sales and Economic Activity," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association, vol. 47(1), pages 165-71, March.
  14. Scoggins, John F., 1995. "The Lotto and Expected Net Revenue," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association, vol. 48(1), pages 61-70, March.
  15. Ian Walker, 1998. "The economic analysis of lotteries," Economic Policy, CEPR & CES & MSH, vol. 13(27), pages 357-402, October.
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Cited by:
  1. Giorgio Fagiolo & Andrea Roventini, 2008. "On the Scientific Status of Economic Policy: A Tale of Alternative Paradigms," Working Papers 47/2008, University of Verona, Department of Economics.
  2. Kent Grote & Victor Matheson, 2011. "The Economics of Lotteries: A Survey of the Literature," Working Papers 1109, College of the Holy Cross, Department of Economics.
  3. Coronel-Brizio, H.F. & Hernández-Montoya, A.R. & Rapallo, F. & Scalas, E., 2008. "Statistical auditing and randomness test of lotto k/N-type games," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(25), pages 6385-6390.

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