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Predicting elections from biographical information about candidates: A commentary essay

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  • Cote, Joseph A.

Abstract

Armstrong and Graefe apply the index method to predict presidential elections. They imply that the technique is also useful for business decision making. Their idea has merit and may be relevant when the decision context is dynamic, has few prior "observations," and where domain knowledge exists. However, Armstrong and Graefe fail to adequately explain the variable selection process, clarify the conditions when the index method is appropriate, or identify the types of problems most amenable to the index method, and fail to discuss how the index method can be calibrated to help make single option decisions.

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  • Cote, Joseph A., 2011. "Predicting elections from biographical information about candidates: A commentary essay," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 64(7), pages 696-698, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbrese:v:64:y:2011:i:7:p:696-698
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Lee, Wing Yee & Goodwin, Paul & Fildes, Robert & Nikolopoulos, Konstantinos & Lawrence, Michael, 2007. "Providing support for the use of analogies in demand forecasting tasks," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 377-390.
    2. Zacharakis, Andrew L. & Shepherd, Dean A., 2001. "The nature of information and overconfidence on venture capitalists' decision making," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 311-332, July.
    3. Lichtman, Allan J., 2008. "The keys to the white house: An index forecast for 2008," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 301-309.
    4. Allan Lichtman, 2006. "Keys to the White House: Forecast for 2008," Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, International Institute of Forecasters, issue 3, pages 5-9, February.
    5. Armstrong, J. Scott & Graefe, Andreas, 2011. "Predicting elections from biographical information about candidates: A test of the index method," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 64(7), pages 699-706, July.
    6. Armstrong, J. Scott & Graefe, Andreas, 2009. "Predicting Elections from Biographical Information about Candidates," MPRA Paper 16461, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Robert Fildes & Paul Goodwin, 2007. "Against Your Better Judgment? How Organizations Can Improve Their Use of Management Judgment in Forecasting," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 37(6), pages 570-576, December.
    8. Robert C. Blattberg & Stephen J. Hoch, 1990. "Database Models and Managerial Intuition: 50% Model + 50% Manager," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 36(8), pages 887-899, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Graefe, Andreas & Armstrong, J. Scott, 2011. "Conditions under which index models are useful: Reply to bio-index commentaries," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 64(7), pages 693-695, July.

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    Keywords

    Index method Forecasting Judgment;

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