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The empirical similarity approach for volatility prediction

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  • Golosnoy, Vasyl
  • Hamid, Alain
  • Okhrin, Yarema

Abstract

In this paper we adapt the empirical similarity (ES) concept for the purpose of combining volatility forecasts originating from different models. Our ES approach is suitable for situations where a decision maker refrains from evaluating success probabilities of forecasting models but prefers to think by analogy. It allows to determine weights of the forecasting combination by quantifying distances between model predictions and corresponding realizations of the process of interest as they are perceived by decision makers. The proposed ES approach is applied for combining models in order to forecast daily volatility of the major stock market indices.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Banking & Finance.

Volume (Year): 40 (2014)
Issue (Month): C ()
Pages: 321-329

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:40:y:2014:i:c:p:321-329

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jbf

Related research

Keywords: Case based decisions; Empirical similarity; Forecasting combinations; Volatility forecasts;

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