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The Eurozone needs exit rules

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  • Fahrholz, Christian
  • Wójcik, Cezary

Abstract

This study argues that the key issue for defining and solving the Eurozone’s (EZ) difficulties lies in readjusting the relationship between the centre and the periphery of the EZ. Our argument proceeds in two steps. Firstly, the basic finance problem of a centre-periphery system is captured by a threat game with complete but imperfect information. To get close to the essence of the current EZ sovereign debt crisis we analyse to what extent a ‘troubled’ periphery member can negotiate a bailout from the centre due to the existence of a negative externality arising from its potential default. Secondly, we analyse how establishing ‘exit rules’ would shift the centre-periphery relationship in a way that safeguards the stability of the EZ. We demonstrate that such rules may help limit the scope for brinkmanship whereby fiscal problems in one member state create a negative externality for the rest of the EZ. We then discuss key policy implications concerning financial aspects of the centre-periphery relationship within the EZ.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Banking & Finance.

Volume (Year): 37 (2013)
Issue (Month): 11 ()
Pages: 4665-4674

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:37:y:2013:i:11:p:4665-4674

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jbf

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Keywords: Sovereign debt crisis; Eurozone; Euro; Exit rules; Bailout; Political economics; Game theory;

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  1. Ariel Rubinstein, 2010. "Perfect Equilibrium in a Bargaining Model," Levine's Working Paper Archive 252, David K. Levine.
  2. Michael G. Arghyrou & John D. Tsoukalas, 2010. "The Greek Debt Crisis: Likely Causes, Mechanics and Outcomes," CESifo Working Paper Series 3266, CESifo Group Munich.
  3. Roel Beetsma & Massimo Giuliodori, 2010. "The Macroeconomic Costs and Benefits of the EMU and Other Monetary Unions: An Overview of Recent Research," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 48(3), pages 603-41, September.
  4. Nash, John, 1953. "Two-Person Cooperative Games," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 21(1), pages 128-140, April.
  5. Wildasin, David E., 1997. "Externalities and bailouts : hard and soft budget constraints in intergovernmental fiscal relations," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1843, The World Bank.
  6. Dmitri Blueschke & Reinhard Neck, 2011. "“Core” and “Periphery” in a Monetary Union: A Macroeconomic Policy Game," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer, vol. 17(3), pages 334-346, August.
  7. Christian Fahrholz & Cezary Wójcik, 2010. "The Bail-Out! Positive Political Economics of Greek-type Crises in the EMU," CESifo Working Paper Series 3178, CESifo Group Munich.
  8. Huck, Steffen & Valasek, Justin Mattias, 2012. "Institutionalizing eurozone exit: A modified NEWNEY approach," Discussion Papers, Research Unit: Economics of Change SP II 2012-304, Social Science Research Center Berlin (WZB).
  9. Albert Jaeger & Ludger Schuknecht, 2007. "Boom-Bust Phases in Asset Prices and Fiscal Policy Behavior," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 43(6), pages 45-66, November.
  10. Michael D. Bordo & Lars Jonung, 1999. "The Future of EMU: What Does the History of Monetary Unions Tell Us?," NBER Working Papers 7365, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Jakob von Weizsäcker & Jacques Delpla, 2010. "The Blue Bond Proposal," Policy Briefs 403, Bruegel.
  12. Backé, Peter & Wójcik, Cezary, 2008. "Credit booms, monetary integration and the new neoclassical synthesis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 458-470, March.
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Cited by:
  1. Christian Fahrholz & Andreas Freytag, 2012. "Will TARGET2-Balances be Reduced again after an End of the Crisis?," Global Financial Markets Working Paper Series 30-2012, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
  2. Frank A.G. den Butter & Mathieu L.L. Segers, 2014. "Prospects for an EMU between Federalism and Nationalism," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 14-008/VI, Tinbergen Institute.

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