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False discoveries in volatility timing of mutual funds

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  • Kim, Sangbae
  • In, Francis
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    Abstract

    This paper examines the volatility timing of US mutual funds by controlling the false discovery rate to find out how many funds are truly countercyclical (procyclical) timing funds. Empirical results show that, given the whole universe of our sample funds, the percentages of countercyclical and procyclical volatility timing funds are about equal. We also find that while the standard approach, which simply counts the number of significant positive (negative) timing coefficients, does not incorporate false discoveries in volatility timing, it provides quite accurate volatility timing results. Finally, we find that the performance measures for an equally weighted portfolio of procyclical timing funds are greater than for an equally weighted portfolio of countercyclical timing funds in the in-sample test, consistent with our expectation that procyclical timers earn higher returns because they take on more risk. However, the countercyclical timing portfolio outperforms the procyclical timing portfolio in the out-of-sample test.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Banking & Finance.

    Volume (Year): 36 (2012)
    Issue (Month): 7 ()
    Pages: 2083-2094

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:36:y:2012:i:7:p:2083-2094

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jbf

    Related research

    Keywords: Mutual fund; Volatility timing; False discovery rate;

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    References

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    1. Giambona, Erasmo & Golec, Joseph, 2009. "Mutual fund volatility timing and management fees," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 589-599, April.
    2. Michael C. Jensen, 1968. "The Performance Of Mutual Funds In The Period 1945–1964," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 23(2), pages 389-416, 05.
    3. Robert Kosowski & Allan Timmermann & Russ Wermers & Hal White, 2006. "Can Mutual Fund "Stars" Really Pick Stocks? New Evidence from a Bootstrap Analysis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(6), pages 2551-2595, December.
    4. Dimitris Politis & Halbert White, 2004. "Automatic Block-Length Selection for the Dependent Bootstrap," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(1), pages 53-70.
    5. McCracken, Michael W & Sapp, Stephen G, 2005. "Evaluating the Predictability of Exchange Rates Using Long-Horizon Regressions: Mind Your p's and q's!," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(3), pages 473-94, June.
    6. Chen, Yong & Liang, Bing, 2007. "Do Market Timing Hedge Funds Time the Market?," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 42(04), pages 827-856, December.
    7. Jeff Fleming, 2001. "The Economic Value of Volatility Timing," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(1), pages 329-352, 02.
    8. José Renato Haas Ornelas & Antônio Francisco Silva Júnior & José Luiz Barros Fernandes, 2012. "Yes, the choice of performance measure does matter for ranking of us mutual funds," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(1), pages 61-72, 01.
    9. Eling, Martin & Schuhmacher, Frank, 2007. "Does the choice of performance measure influence the evaluation of hedge funds?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(9), pages 2632-2647, September.
    10. Busse, Jeffrey A, 1999. "Volatility Timing in Mutual Funds: Evidence from Daily Returns," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(5), pages 1009-41.
    11. Goetzmann, William N. & Ingersoll, Jonathan & Ivković, Zoran, 2000. "Monthly Measurement of Daily Timers," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 35(03), pages 257-290, September.
    12. Carhart, Mark M, 1997. " On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 57-82, March.
    13. Laurent Barras & Olivier Scaillet & Russ Wermers, 2010. "False Discoveries in Mutual Fund Performance: Measuring Luck in Estimated Alphas," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(1), pages 179-216, 02.
    14. Jiang, Wei, 2003. "A nonparametric test of market timing," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 399-425, September.
    15. Russ Wermers, 1999. "Mutual Fund Herding and the Impact on Stock Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(2), pages 581-622, 04.
    16. Fleming, Jeff & Kirby, Chris & Ostdiek, Barbara, 2003. "The economic value of volatility timing using "realized" volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(3), pages 473-509, March.
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