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Asset allocation: How much does model choice matter?

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  • Branger, Nicole
  • Hansis, Alexandra
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    Abstract

    This paper analyzes the optimal portfolio decision of a CRRA investor in models with stochastic volatility and stochastic jumps. The investor follows a buy-and-hold strategy in the stock, the money market account, and one additional derivative. We show that both the type of the model and the structure of the risk premia have a significant impact on the optimal portfolio, on the utility gain from having access to derivatives, and on whether the investor prefers to trade OTM or ATM options. We also show that model mis-specification results in significant utility losses. Omitting jumps in volatility can be devastating, in particular if the investor chooses the seemingly optimal OTM put options. A misestimation of the structure of the risk premia has a less devastating effect, but can still lead to a loss of around 4% in the annual certainty equivalent return.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Banking & Finance.

    Volume (Year): 36 (2012)
    Issue (Month): 7 ()
    Pages: 1865-1882

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:36:y:2012:i:7:p:1865-1882

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jbf

    Related research

    Keywords: Stochastic volatility; Jumps; Market prices of risk; Asset allocation; Buy-and-hold strategy; Model mis-specification;

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    References

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    1. Darrell Duffie & Jun Pan & Kenneth Singleton, 1999. "Transform Analysis and Asset Pricing for Affine Jump-Diffusions," NBER Working Papers 7105, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Bjørn Eraker, 2004. "Do Stock Prices and Volatility Jump? Reconciling Evidence from Spot and Option Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(3), pages 1367-1404, 06.
    3. Nicole Branger & Beate Breuer & Christian Schlag, 2010. "Discrete-time implementation of continuous-time portfolio strategies," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(2), pages 137-152.
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    14. Bjørn Eraker & Michael Johannes & Nicholas Polson, 2003. "The Impact of Jumps in Volatility and Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(3), pages 1269-1300, 06.
    15. Mark Broadie & Mikhail Chernov & Michael Johannes, 2007. "Model Specification and Risk Premia: Evidence from Futures Options," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(3), pages 1453-1490, 06.
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    17. Bakshi, Gurdip & Cao, Charles & Chen, Zhiwu, 1997. " Empirical Performance of Alternative Option Pricing Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(5), pages 2003-49, December.
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