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Can broker-dealer client surveys provide signals for debt investing?

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  • Andrade, Sandro C.
  • Barrett, W. Brian
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    Abstract

    We use a novel data set to study return predictability in debt markets. The data are collected from J.P. Morgan's periodic surveys on its clients' outlook for changes in US Treasury yields and corporate credit spreads. We document that simple signals constructed from such surveys predict excess returns on debt portfolios formed on the basis of duration (2-years minus zero) or credit quality (BBB minus AAA). A linear trading strategy placing equal weight on Treasury and Credit signals has an annualized Information Ratio equal to 1.18, before transaction costs. We also show that predictability is likely to stem from private information possessed by survey respondents rather than from risk premia.

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    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6VCY-513VRG5-3/2/08c45cb2f39ac960927bae88e0b8cad0
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Banking & Finance.

    Volume (Year): 35 (2011)
    Issue (Month): 5 (May)
    Pages: 1170-1178

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:35:y:2011:i:5:p:1170-1178

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jbf

    Related research

    Keywords: Debt markets Return predictability Client survey;

    References

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    1. Sarno, Lucio & Thornton, Daniel L. & Valente, Giorgio, 2007. "The Empirical Failure of the Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure of Bond Yields," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 42(01), pages 81-100, March.
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    3. T. Clifton Green, 2004. "Economic News and the Impact of Trading on Bond Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(3), pages 1201-1234, 06.
    4. Almeida, Caio Ibsen Rodrigues de & Vicente, José Valentim M., 2007. "The Role of No-Arbitrage on Forecasting: Lessons from a Parametric Term Structure Model," Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 657, FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
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    9. Brown, Craig R. & Cyree, Ken B. & Griffiths, Mark D. & Winters, Drew B., 2008. "Further analysis of the expectations hypothesis using very short-term rates," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 600-613, April.
    10. Pasquariello, Paolo & Vega, Clara, 2009. "The on-the-run liquidity phenomenon," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 1-24, April.
    11. Blackwell, David W & Winters, Drew B, 1997. "Banking Relationships and the Effect of Monitoring on Loan Pricing," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association & Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 20(2), pages 275-89, Summer.
    12. Kessler, Stephan & Scherer, Bernd, 2009. "Varying risk premia in international bond markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(8), pages 1361-1375, August.
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    14. Wright, Jonathan H. & Zhou, Hao, 2009. "Bond risk premia and realized jump risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(12), pages 2333-2345, December.
    15. Griffiths, Mark D. & Lindley, James T. & Winters, Drew B., 2010. "Market-making costs in Treasury bills: A benchmark for the cost of liquidity," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(9), pages 2146-2157, September.
    16. Kelly, Patrick J. & Meschke, Felix, 2010. "Sentiment and stock returns: The SAD anomaly revisited," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1308-1326, June.
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