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Information content of options trading volume for future volatility: Evidence from the Taiwan options market

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Author Info

  • Chang, Chuang-Chang
  • Hsieh, Pei-Fang
  • Wang, Yaw-Huei

Abstract

This study follows the approach of Ni et al. [Ni, S.X., Pan, J., Poteshman, A.M., 2008. Volatility information trading in the option market. Journal of Finance 63, 1059-1091] - based upon the vega-weighted net demand for volatility - to determine whether volatility information exists within the Taiwan options market. Our empirical results show that foreign institutional investors possess the strongest and most direct volatility information, which is realized by the delta-neutral options/futures trades. In addition, a few individual investors (less than 1% of individuals' trades) might be informed and realize their volatility information using the strangle strategy. Surprisingly, we find no evidence to support the predictive ability of the volatility demand from straddle trades, despite the widespread acknowledgement that such trades are sensitive to volatility.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Banking & Finance.

Volume (Year): 34 (2010)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
Pages: 174-183

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:34:y:2010:i:1:p:174-183

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jbf

Related research

Keywords: Option volume Volatility Emerging markets Foreign investors;

References

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  1. Sophie X. Ni & Jun Pan & Allen M. Poteshman, 2008. "Volatility Information Trading in the Option Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(3), pages 1059-1091, 06.
  2. Chang, Chuang-Chang & Hsieh, Pei-Fang & Lai, Hung-Neng, 2009. "Do informed option investors predict stock returns? Evidence from the Taiwan stock exchange," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 757-764, April.
  3. Sassan Alizadeh & Michael W. Brandt & Francis X. Diebold, 2002. "Range-Based Estimation of Stochastic Volatility Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(3), pages 1047-1091, 06.
  4. Blair, Bevan J. & Poon, Ser-Huang & Taylor, Stephen J., 2001. "Forecasting S&P 100 volatility: the incremental information content of implied volatilities and high-frequency index returns," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 5-26, November.
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  6. Anthony Richards, 2004. "Big Fish in Small Ponds: The Trading Behaviour and Price Impact of Foreign Investors in Asian Emerging Equity Markets," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2004-05, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  7. Jorion, Philippe, 1995. " Predicting Volatility in the Foreign Exchange Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(2), pages 507-28, June.
  8. Canina, Linda & Figlewski, Stephen, 1993. "The Informational Content of Implied Volatility," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(3), pages 659-81.
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  10. Kalok Chan & Y. Peter Chung & Wai-Ming Fong, 2002. "The Informational Role of Stock and Option Volume," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(4), pages 1049-1075.
  11. Bedendo, Mascia & Hodges, Stewart D., 2009. "The dynamics of the volatility skew: A Kalman filter approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1156-1165, June.
  12. George J. Jiang & Yisong S. Tian, 2005. "The Model-Free Implied Volatility and Its Information Content," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(4), pages 1305-1342.
  13. Charles Cao & Zhiwu Chen & John M. Griffin, 2005. "Informational Content of Option Volume Prior to Takeovers," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(3), pages 1073-1109, May.
  14. Sugato Chakravarty & Huseyin Gulen & Stewart Mayhew, 2004. "Informed Trading in Stock and Option Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(3), pages 1235-1258, 06.
  15. Brad M. Barber & Yi-Tsung Lee & Yu-Jane Liu & Terrance Odean, 2009. "Just How Much Do Individual Investors Lose by Trading?," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(2), pages 609-632, February.
  16. John M. Griffin & Federico Nardari & René M. Stulz, 2004. "Are Daily Cross-Border Equity Flows Pushed or Pulled?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(3), pages 641-657, August.
  17. Jun Pan & Allen M. Poteshman, 2006. "The Information in Option Volume for Future Stock Prices," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 19(3), pages 871-908.
  18. Chern, Keh-Yiing & Tandon, Kishore & Yu, Susana & Webb, Gwendolyn, 2008. "The information content of stock split announcements: Do options matter?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 930-946, June.
  19. Konstantinidi, Eirini & Skiadopoulos, George & Tzagkaraki, Emilia, 2008. "Can the evolution of implied volatility be forecasted? Evidence from European and US implied volatility indices," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(11), pages 2401-2411, November.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Mougoué, Mbodja & Aggarwal, Raj, 2011. "Trading volume and exchange rate volatility: Evidence for the sequential arrival of information hypothesis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(10), pages 2690-2703, October.
  2. Choy, Siu Kai & Wei, Jason, 2012. "Option trading: Information or differences of opinion?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 2299-2322.
  3. Fleming, Jeff & Kirby, Chris, 2011. "Long memory in volatility and trading volume," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(7), pages 1714-1726, July.
  4. Fahlenbrach, Rüdiger & Sandås, Patrik, 2010. "Does information drive trading in option strategies?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(10), pages 2370-2385, October.
  5. Martín Saldías & Rafael Barbosa, 2013. "Option trade volume and volatility of banks’ stock returns," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.

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