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Is there cyclical bias in bank holding company risk ratings?

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  • Curry, Timothy J.
  • Fissel, Gary S.
  • Hanweck, Gerald A.

Abstract

This paper examines whether bank holding company (BHC) risk ratings are asymmetrically assigned or biased over business cycles from 1986 to 2003. In a model of ratings determination which accounts for bank characteristics, financial market conditions, past supervisory information, and aggregate macro-economic factors, we find that bank exam ratings exhibit inter-temporal characteristics. First, exam ratings exhibit some evidence of examiner bias for several periods analyzed. When the business cycle turns, examiners sometime depart from standards that they set during the previous phases of the cycle. However, this bias is not widespread or systematic. Second, exam ratings exhibit some inertia. Our results suggest that examiners rate on the side of not changing (rather than upgrading or downgrading) an institution's exam rating. Third, we find robust evidence of a secular trend towards more stringent examination BHC ratings standards over time.

Suggested Citation

  • Curry, Timothy J. & Fissel, Gary S. & Hanweck, Gerald A., 2008. "Is there cyclical bias in bank holding company risk ratings?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(7), pages 1297-1309, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:32:y:2008:i:7:p:1297-1309
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    4. Marshall E. Blume & Felix Lim & A. Craig MacKinlay, "undated". "The Declining Credit Quality of US Corporate Debt: Myth or Reality?," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 03-98, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
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    8. repec:fth:pennfi:67 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Marshall E. Blume & Felix Lim & A. Craig MacKinlay, "undated". "The Declining Credit Quality of US Corporate Debt: Myth or Reality?," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 3-98, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
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    Cited by:

    1. Marcelo Rezende, 2014. "The Effects of Bank Charter Switching on Supervisory Ratings," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2014-20, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Curry, Timothy J. & Fissel, Gary S. & Ramirez, Carlos D., 2008. "The impact of bank supervision on loan growth," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 113-134, August.
    3. Chronopoulos, Dimitris K. & Wilson, John O.S. & Yilmaz, Muhammed H., 2023. "Regulatory oversight and bank risk," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    4. Ovi, Nafisa & Bose, Sudipta & Gunasekarage, Abeyratna & Shams, Syed, 2020. "Do the business cycle and revenue diversification matter for banks’ capital buffer and credit risk: Evidence from ASEAN banks," Journal of Contemporary Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1).
    5. Gaul, Lewis & Palvia, Ajay, 2013. "Are regulatory management evaluations informative about bank accounting returns and risk?," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 1-21.
    6. Saadaoui Zied, 2015. "The Cyclical Behaviour of Bank Capital Buffers: An Empirical Evidence for MENA Banking Systems," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 11(2), pages 145-182, August.
    7. Fazio, Dimas M. & Tabak, Benjamin M. & Cajueiro, Daniel O., 2015. "Inflation targeting: Is IT to blame for banking system instability?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 76-97.
    8. Umara Noreen & Fizza Alamdar & Tabassum Tariq, 2016. "Capital Buffers and Bank Risk: Empirical Study of Adjustment of Pakistani Banks," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 6(4), pages 1798-1806.
    9. Sorokina, Nonna Y. & Thornton, John H. & Patel, Ajay, 2017. "Why do banks choose to finance with equity?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 36-52.
    10. Bassett, William F. & Lee, Seung Jung & Spiller, Thomas Popeck, 2015. "Estimating changes in supervisory standards and their economic effects," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 21-43.
    11. Alexander Karminsky, 2016. "Rating models: emerging market distinctions," Papers 1607.02422, arXiv.org.
    12. Vallascas, Francesco & Keasey, Kevin, 2012. "Bank resilience to systemic shocks and the stability of banking systems: Small is beautiful," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1745-1776.
    13. Shim, Jeungbo, 2013. "Bank capital buffer and portfolio risk: The influence of business cycle and revenue diversification," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 761-772.
    14. Faisal Abbas & Zahid Irshad Younas, 2021. "How Do Bank Capital and Capital Buffer Affect Risk: Empirical Evidence from Large US Commercial Banks," Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, Central bank of Montenegro, vol. 10(2), pages 109-131.
    15. Emawtee Bissoondoyal-Bheenick & Sirimon Treepongkaruna, 2011. "An analysis of the determinants of bank ratings: comparison across ratings agencies," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 36(3), pages 405-424, December.
    16. zhang, zhichao & Xie, Li & lu, xiangyun & zhang, zhuang, 2014. "Determinants of financial distress in u.s. large bank holding companies," MPRA Paper 53545, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Louis, Philippe & Van Laere, Elisabeth & Baesens, Bart, 2013. "Understanding and predicting bank rating transitions using optimal survival analysis models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 119(3), pages 280-283.
    18. Kupiec, Paul & Lee, Yan & Rosenfeld, Claire, 2017. "Does bank supervision impact bank loan growth?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 29-48.

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