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The optimal structure of PD buckets

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  • Krink, Thiemo
  • Paterlini, Sandra
  • Resti, Andrea

Abstract

In designing credit rating systems under the new Basel Accord, considerable effort has been devoted to rating assignment and quantification, while the choice of the optimal bucket structure has received less attention. To fill this gap, we propose two "bucketing" strategies based on constrained optimisation, paying attention to the implications of rating buckets for loan-pricing and adverse selection phenomena. We compare them with some more naïve approaches, based on a sample of about 100,000 European companies. We also analyse the persistence of our performance measures over time, as well as the effect of large exposures being associated with low-PD obligors.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Banking & Finance.

Volume (Year): 32 (2008)
Issue (Month): 10 (October)
Pages: 2275-2286

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:32:y:2008:i:10:p:2275-2286

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Keywords: Basel II Internal ratings Probability of default;

References

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  1. Edward I. Altman, 1968. "Financial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis And The Prediction Of Corporate Bankruptcy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 23(4), pages 589-609, 09.
  2. Carey, Mark & Hrycay, Mark, 2001. "Parameterizing credit risk models with rating data," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 197-270, January.
  3. Paterlini, Sandra & Krink, Thiemo, 2006. "Differential evolution and particle swarm optimisation in partitional clustering," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 50(5), pages 1220-1247, March.
  4. William F. Treacy & Mark S. Carey, 1998. "Credit risk rating at large U.S. banks," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), issue Nov, pages 897-921.
  5. Stiglitz, Joseph E & Weiss, Andrew, 1981. "Credit Rationing in Markets with Imperfect Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 393-410, June.
  6. Dirk Tasche, 2003. "A traffic lights approach to PD validation," Papers cond-mat/0305038, arXiv.org.
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Cited by:
  1. Marianna Lyra & Johannes Paha & Sandra Paterlini & Peter Winker, 2008. "Optimization Heuristics for Determining Internal Rating Grading Scales," Center for Economic Research (RECent) 023, University of Modena and Reggio E., Dept. of Economics.
  2. Marianna Lyra & Akwum Onwunta & Peter Winker, 2010. "Threshold Accepting for Credit Risk Assessment and Validation," Working Papers 039, COMISEF.
  3. Thiemo Krink & Sandra Paterlini, 2011. "Multiobjective optimization using differential evolution for real-world portfolio optimization," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 8(1), pages 157-179, April.
  4. Marianna Lyra, 2010. "Heuristic Strategies in Finance – An Overview," Working Papers 045, COMISEF.
  5. Emilia ?I?AN & Adela Ioana TUDOR, 2011. "Conceptual and Statistical Issues Regarding the Probability of Default and Modeling Default Risk," Database Systems Journal, Academy of Economic Studies - Bucharest, Romania, vol. 2(1), pages 13-22, March.

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