IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jbfina/v30y2006i6p1807-1834.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Liquidity risk in securities settlement

Author

Listed:
  • Devriese, Johan
  • Mitchell, Janet

Abstract

This paper studies the potential impact on securities settlement systems (SSSs) of a major market disruption, caused by the default of the largest player. A multi-period, multi-security model with intraday credit is used to simulate direct and second round settlement failures triggered by the default, as well as the dynamics of settlement failures, arising from a lag in settlement relative to the date of trades. The effects of the defaulter's net trade position, the numbers of securities and participants in the market, and participants' trading behaviour are also analysed. We show that in SSSs ? contrary to payment systems ? large and persistent settlement failures are possible even when ample liquidity is provided. Central bank liquidity support to SSSs thus cannot eliminate settlement failures due to major market disruptions. This is due to the fact that securities transactions involve a cash leg and a securities leg, and liquidity can affect only the cash side of a transaction. Whereas a broad program of securities borrowing and lending might help, it is precisely during periods of market disruption that participants will be least willing to lend securities. Interestingly, settlement failures continue to occur beyond the period corresponding to the lag in settlement. This is due to the fact that, upon observation of a default, market participants must form expectations about the impact of the default, and these expectations affect current trading behaviour. If, ex post, fewer of the previous trades settle than expected, new settlement failures will occur. This result has interesting implications for financial stability. On the one hand, conservative reactions by market participants to a default - for example by limiting the volume of trades ? can result in a more rapid return of the settlement system to a normal level of efficiency. On the other hand, limitation of trading by market participants can reduce market liquidity, which may have a negative impact on fin
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Devriese, Johan & Mitchell, Janet, 2006. "Liquidity risk in securities settlement," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 1807-1834, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:30:y:2006:i:6:p:1807-1834
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378-4266(05)00185-8
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Carol Ann Northcott, 2002. "Estimating Settlement Risk and the Potential for Contagion in Canada's Automated Clearing Settlement System," Staff Working Papers 02-41, Bank of Canada.
    2. De Bandt, Olivier & Hartmann, Philipp, 2000. "Systemic risk: A survey," Working Paper Series 35, European Central Bank.
    3. Kahn, Charles M & McAndrews, James & Roberds, William, 2003. "Settlement Risk under Gross and Net Settlement," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(4), pages 591-608, August.
    4. Upper, Christian & Worms, Andreas, 2004. "Estimating bilateral exposures in the German interbank market: Is there a danger of contagion?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(4), pages 827-849, August.
    5. Hans Degryse & Grégory Nguyen, 2004. "Interbank exposures: an empirical examination of systemic risk in the Belgian banking system," Working Paper Research 43, National Bank of Belgium.
    6. Douglas W. Diamond & Raghuram G. Rajan, 2005. "Liquidity Shortages and Banking Crises," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(2), pages 615-647, April.
    7. Kahn, Charles M & Roberds, William, 1998. "Payment System Settlement and Bank Incentives," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 11(4), pages 845-870.
    8. Douglas W. Diamond & Philip H. Dybvig, 2000. "Bank runs, deposit insurance, and liquidity," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 24(Win), pages 14-23.
    9. Jean-Charles Rochet & Jean Tirole, 1996. "Interbank lending and systemic risk," Proceedings, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), pages 733-765.
    10. Rodrigo Cifuentes & Hyun Song Shin & Gianluigi Ferrucci, 2005. "Liquidity Risk and Contagion," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 3(2-3), pages 556-566, 04/05.
    11. Angelini, Paolo, 1998. "An analysis of competitive externalities in gross settlement systems," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 1-18, January.
    12. Iori, Giulia, 2004. "An analysis of systemic risk in alternative securities settlement architectures," Working Paper Series 404, European Central Bank.
    13. Angelini, P. & Maresca, G. & Russo, D., 1996. "Systemic risk in the netting system," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 853-868, June.
    14. Furfine, Craig H, 2003. "Interbank Exposures: Quantifying the Risk of Contagion," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(1), pages 111-128, February.
    15. Franklin Allen & Douglas Gale, 1998. "Financial Contagion Journal of Political Economy," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 98-31, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
    16. Michael J. Fleming & Kenneth D. Garbade, 2002. "When the back office moved to the front burner: settlement fails in the treasury market after 9/11," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 8(Nov), pages 35-57.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Galbiati, Marco & Soramäki, Kimmo, 2011. "An agent-based model of payment systems," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(6), pages 859-875, June.
    2. Serge Jeanneau & Camilo E Tovar, 2008. "Financial stability implications of local currency bond markets: an overview of the risks," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), New financing trends in Latin America: a bumpy road towards stability, volume 36, pages 65-87, Bank for International Settlements.
    3. Gurrola-Perez, Pedro & He, Jieshuang & Harper, Gary, 2019. "Securities settlement fails network and buy‑in strategies," Bank of England working papers 821, Bank of England.
    4. Morten L. Bech & Rodney J. Garratt, 2012. "Illiquidity in the Interbank Payment System Following Wide-Scale Disruptions," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(5), pages 903-929, August.
    5. Merrouche, Ouarda & Schanz, Jochen, 2010. "Banks' intraday liquidity management during operational outages: Theory and evidence from the UK payment system," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 314-323, February.
    6. Giulia Iori & Christophe Deissenberg, 2008. "An Analysis of Settlement Risk Contagion in Alternative Securities Settlement Architectures," Springer Books, in: Erricos J. Kontoghiorghes & Berç Rustem & Peter Winker (ed.), Computational Methods in Financial Engineering, pages 299-315, Springer.
    7. Leinonen, Harry (ed.), 2007. "Simulation studies of liquidity needs, risks and efficiency in payment networks: Proceedings from the Bank of Finland Payment and Settlement System Seminars 2005-2006," Bank of Finland Scientific Monographs, Bank of Finland, volume 0, number sm2007_039.
    8. Michele Manna & Carmela Iazzetta, 2009. "The topology of the interbank market: developments in Italy since 1990," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 711, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    9. Li, Fangmin & Yang, Tianle & Du, Min & Huang, Miao, 2023. "The development fit index of digital currency electronic payment between China and the one belt one road countries," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    10. Son, Bumho & Jang, Huisu, 2023. "Economics of blockchain-based securities settlement," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    11. Milne, Alistair, 2007. "The industrial organization of post-trade clearing and settlement," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(10), pages 2945-2961, October.
    12. Panourgias, Nikiforos S., 2015. "Capital markets integration: A sociotechnical study of the development of a cross-border securities settlement system," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 317-338.
    13. John P Jackson & Mark J Manning, 2007. "Comparing the pre-settlement risk implications of alternative clearing arrangements," Bank of England working papers 321, Bank of England.
    14. Geert Langenus, 2006. "Fiscal sustainability indicators and policy design in the face of ageing," Working Paper Research 102, National Bank of Belgium.
    15. Silva, Walmir & Kimura, Herbert & Sobreiro, Vinicius Amorim, 2017. "An analysis of the literature on systemic financial risk: A survey," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 91-114.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Upper, Christian, 2011. "Simulation methods to assess the danger of contagion in interbank markets," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 111-125, August.
    2. Augusto Hasman, 2013. "A Critical Review Of Contagion Risk In Banking," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(5), pages 978-995, December.
    3. Ebrahimi Kahou, Mahdi & Lehar, Alfred, 2017. "Macroprudential policy: A review," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 92-105.
    4. Ana Babus, 2016. "The formation of financial networks," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 47(2), pages 239-272, May.
    5. Mistrulli, Paolo Emilio, 2011. "Assessing financial contagion in the interbank market: Maximum entropy versus observed interbank lending patterns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 1114-1127, May.
    6. Iman van Lelyveld & Franka Liedorp, 2006. "Interbank Contagion in the Dutch Banking Sector: A Sensitivity Analysis," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(2), May.
    7. Christoph Siebenbrunner, 2021. "Quantifying the importance of different contagion channels as sources of systemic risk," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 16(1), pages 103-131, January.
    8. Dairo Estrada & Daniel Osorio, 2006. "A Market Risk Approach to Liquidity Risk and Financial Contagion," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 24(50), pages 242-271, June.
    9. Michiel Bijlsma & Jeroen Klomp & Sijmen Duineveld, 2010. "Systemic risk in the financial sector; a review and synthesis," CPB Document 210.rdf, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    10. Iyer, Rajkamal & Peydró, José-Luis, 2011. "Interbank contagion at work: Evidence from a natural experiment," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 24(4), pages 1337-1377.
    11. Callado-Muñoz, Francisco José, 2009. "Risk control measures in payment systems," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 1-25, February.
    12. Lelyveld, Iman van & Liedorp, Franka, 2004. "Interbank Contagion in the Dutch Banking Sector," MPRA Paper 651, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 11 Jul 2005.
    13. Kox, Henk L.M. & Leeuwen, George van, 2012. "Dynamic market selection in EU business services," MPRA Paper 41016, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Silva, Walmir & Kimura, Herbert & Sobreiro, Vinicius Amorim, 2017. "An analysis of the literature on systemic financial risk: A survey," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 91-114.
    15. Michiel Bijlsma & Wim Suyker, 2008. "The credit crisis and the Dutch economy... in eight frequently asked questions," CPB Memorandum 210.rdf, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    16. Acharya, Viral & Yorulmazer, Tanju, 2003. "Information Contagion and Inter-Bank Correlation in a Theory of Systemic Risk," CEPR Discussion Papers 3743, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    17. Degryse, H.A. & Nguyen, G., 2004. "Interbank Exposures : An Empirical Examination of Systemic Risk in the Belgian Banking System," Other publications TiSEM 24d7f8a9-0f7c-411a-843c-c, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    18. Nier, Erlend & Yang, Jing & Yorulmazer, Tanju & Alentorn, Amadeo, 2007. "Network models and financial stability," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 2033-2060, June.
    19. Michele Manna & Carmela Iazzetta, 2009. "The topology of the interbank market: developments in Italy since 1990," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 711, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    20. Reint Gropp & Marco Lo Duca & Jukka Vesala, 2009. "Cross-Border Bank Contagion in Europe," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 5(1), pages 97-139, March.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C60 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - General
    • D80 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - General
    • G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:30:y:2006:i:6:p:1807-1834. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jbf .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.