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Stochastic optimal control, international finance and debt

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  • Fleming, Wendell H.
  • Stein, Jerome L.

Abstract

We use stochastic optimal control-dynamic programming (DP) to derive the optimal foreign debt/net worth, consumption/net worth, current account/net worth, and endogenous growth rate in an open economy. Unlike the literature that uses an Intertemporal Budget Constraint (IBC) or the Maximum Principle, the DP approach does not require perfect foresight or certainty equivalence. Errors of measurement and the effects of unanticipated shocks are corrected in an optimal manner. We contrast the DP and IBC approaches, show how the results of the dynamic programming approach can be interpreted in a traditional simple mean-variance/Tobin-Markowitz context, and explain why our results are generalizations of the Merton model.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Banking & Finance.

Volume (Year): 28 (2004)
Issue (Month): 5 (May)
Pages: 979-996

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:28:y:2004:i:5:p:979-996

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jbf

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References

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  1. Stein, Jerome L & Paladino, Giovanna, 2001. "Country Default Risk: An Empirical Assessment," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(4), pages 417-36, December.
  2. Infante, Ettore F & Stein, Jerome L, 1973. "Optimal Growth with Robust Feedback Control," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(1), pages 47-60, January.
  3. Gandolfo, Giancarlo & Goldberg, Michael D., 2005. "International Finance And Open-Economy Macroeconomics," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(02), pages 263-266, April.
  4. Milton Friedman & Anna J. Schwartz, 1963. "A Monetary History of the United States, 1867-1960," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number frie63-1.
  5. Stein, Jerome L. & Paladino, Giovanna, 1997. "Recent developments in international finance: A guide to research," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(11-12), pages 1685-1720, December.
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Cited by:
  1. Stein, Jerome L., 2011. "The crisis, Fed, Quants and stochastic optimal control," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 272-280.
  2. Jerome L. Stein, 2006. "United States Current Account Deficits: A Stochastic Optimal Control Analysis," CESifo Working Paper Series 1805, CESifo Group Munich.
  3. Kwamie Dunbar, 2009. "Stochastic Business Cycle Volatilities, Capital Accumulation and Economic Growth: Lessons from the Global Credit Market Crisis," Working papers 2009-36, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
  4. Stein, Jerome L., 2009. "A tale of two debt crises: a stochastic optimal control analysis," Economics Discussion Papers 2009-44, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.

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