Do professional forecasters apply the Phillips curve and Okun's law? Evidence from six Asian-Pacific countries
AbstractUsing survey data from six Asian-Pacific countries, we report that professional forecasters apply the wage Phillips curve, the price Phillips curve, and Okun's law when forecasting macroeconomic variables. This result is robust when using time-varying coefficients, different forecast horizons and when taking business-cycle asymmetries into account. The results also suggest that the confidence in macroeconomic relationships was more pronounced during the economic crisis 2007–2009 and when looking at longer forecast horizons.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Japan and the World Economy.
Volume (Year): 24 (2012)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505557
Okun's law; Phillips curve; Asian-Pacific countries; Professional forecasters;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
- F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
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