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Do professional forecasters apply the Phillips curve and Okun's law? Evidence from six Asian-Pacific countries

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  • Rülke, Jan-Christoph
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    Abstract

    Using survey data from six Asian-Pacific countries, we report that professional forecasters apply the wage Phillips curve, the price Phillips curve, and Okun's law when forecasting macroeconomic variables. This result is robust when using time-varying coefficients, different forecast horizons and when taking business-cycle asymmetries into account. The results also suggest that the confidence in macroeconomic relationships was more pronounced during the economic crisis 2007–2009 and when looking at longer forecast horizons.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Japan and the World Economy.

    Volume (Year): 24 (2012)
    Issue (Month): 4 ()
    Pages: 317-324

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:japwor:v:24:y:2012:i:4:p:317-324

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505557

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    Keywords: Okun's law; Phillips curve; Asian-Pacific countries; Professional forecasters;

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