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Forecasting U.S. car sales and car registrations in Japan: Rationality, accuracy and herding

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  • Pierdzioch, Christian
  • Rülke, Jan-Christoph
  • Stadtmann, Georg

Abstract

We analyze forecasts of car sales in the U.S. and forecasts of car registrations in Japan. We document a substantial heterogeneity of forecasts, and we show that, based on traditional criteria, forecasts are neither rational nor unbiased. We also report that forecasters anti-herd, that is, forecasters seem to intentionally scatter their forecasts around a consensus forecast. We further show that cross-sectional heterogeneity of forecasts with regard to anti-herding transmits onto cross-sectional heterogeneity of forecast accuracy. Specifically, we document that forecasters who herd provide more accurate forecasts than their colleagues who anti-herd.

Suggested Citation

  • Pierdzioch, Christian & Rülke, Jan-Christoph & Stadtmann, Georg, 2011. "Forecasting U.S. car sales and car registrations in Japan: Rationality, accuracy and herding," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 253-258.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:japwor:v:23:y:2011:i:4:p:253-258
    DOI: 10.1016/j.japwor.2011.09.002
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    Cited by:

    1. Homolka, Lubor & Ngo, Vu Minh & Pavelková, Drahomíra & Le, Bach Tuan & Dehning, Bruce, 2020. "Short- and medium-term car registration forecasting based on selected macro and socio-economic indicators in European countries," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Automobile industry; Forecasting; Japan and the United States; Forecast accuracy; Herding;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • L62 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Manufacturing - - - Automobiles; Other Transportation Equipment; Related Parts and Equipment
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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