Will Japan, Taiwan or the US be isolated by China? A macroeconomic game approach
AbstractIn Taiwan, Japan and even the United States, economic isolation has become a major concern due to the growing Chinese economy, which may lead to welfare losses for the isolated countries. On the basis of the framework developed by Plasmans et al. [Plasmans, J., Engwerda, J., van Aarle, B., Di Bartolomeo, G., Michalak, T., 2005. Dynamic Modelling of Monetary and Fiscal Cooperation Among Nations. Springer], this paper establishes a four-player game with an open-loop information structure to measure possible losses by an international policy coordination approach instead of the conventional free trade agreements. We simulate macroeconomic adjustments of the four countries according to the different institutional scenarios and economic shocks. The baseline simulation and sensitivity analyses indicate that Taiwan can get benefit by participating in coalitional mechanisms including China. In addition, most of the feasible policy coalitions cannot come into effect without US participation. This implies that at the current stage the US rather than China should be the main economic partner of Taiwan and Japan to prevent them from being economically marginalized.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Japan and the World Economy.
Volume (Year): 22 (2010)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505557
Economic isolation East Asia Policy coordination Macroeconomic game;
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Nash, John, 1950. "The Bargaining Problem," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 18(2), pages 155-162, April.
- Mundell, Robert, 2003. "Prospects for an Asian currency area," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 1-10, February.
- Beetsma, Roel & Jensen, Henrik, 2002.
"Monetary and fiscal policy interactions in a micro-founded model of a monetary union,"
Working Paper Series
0166, European Central Bank.
- Beetsma, Roel M.W.J. & Jensen, Henrik, 2005. "Monetary and fiscal policy interactions in a micro-founded model of a monetary union," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 320-352, December.
- Beetsma, Roel & Jensen, Henrik, 2002. "Monetary and Fiscal Policy Interactions in a Micro-Funded Model of a Monetary Union," CEPR Discussion Papers 3591, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Frankel, Jeffrey A & Rose, Andrew K, 1996.
"The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
1473, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Frankel, Jeffrey A & Rose, Andrew K, 1998. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(449), pages 1009-25, July.
- Jeffrey A. Frankel & Andrew K. Rose, 1996. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria," NBER Working Papers 5700, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Junichi Goto & Koichi Hamada, 1994. "Economic Preconditions for Asian Regional Integration," NBER Chapters, in: Macroeconomic Linkage: Savings, Exchange Rates, and Capital Flows, NBER-EASE Volume 3, pages 359-388 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Engwerda, Jacob C. & van Aarle, Bas & Plasmans, Joseph E. J., 2002.
"Cooperative and non-cooperative fiscal stabilization policies in the EMU,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,
Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 451-481, March.
- Engwerda, J.C. & Aarle, B. van & Plasmans, J.E.J., 2002. "Cooperative and non-cooperative fiscal stabilization policies in the EMU," Open Access publications from Tilburg University urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-88304, Tilburg University.
- Karras, Georgios, 2005. "Is there a yen optimum currency area? Evidence from 18 Asian and Pacific economies," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 456-469, December.
- Aminian, Nathalie, 2005. "Economic integration and prospects for regional monetary cooperation in East Asia," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 91-110, March.
- Jean-Luc Dehaene, 2000. "Reunification of Europe: A Societal Project for the Twenty-first Century," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(10), pages 1311-1321, October.
- Engwerda, J.C., 1998.
"Computational aspects of the open-loop Nash equilibrium in linear quadratic games,"
Open Access publications from Tilburg University
urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-75998, Tilburg University.
- Engwerda, J. C., 1998. "Computational aspects of the open-loop Nash equilibrium in linear quadratic games," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(8-9), pages 1487-1506, August.
- Engwerda, J.C., 1997. "Computational aspects of the open-loop Nash Equilibrium in linear quadratic games," Discussion Paper 1997-83, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
- Tain-Jy Chen, 2003. "Will Taiwan Be Marginalized by China?," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 2(2), pages 78-97.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wendy Shamier).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.