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Will Japan, Taiwan or the US be isolated by China? A macroeconomic game approach

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  • Yeh, Kuo-chun
  • Ho, Tai-kuang

Abstract

In Taiwan, Japan and even the United States, economic isolation has become a major concern due to the growing Chinese economy, which may lead to welfare losses for the isolated countries. On the basis of the framework developed by Plasmans et al. [Plasmans, J., Engwerda, J., van Aarle, B., Di Bartolomeo, G., Michalak, T., 2005. Dynamic Modelling of Monetary and Fiscal Cooperation Among Nations. Springer], this paper establishes a four-player game with an open-loop information structure to measure possible losses by an international policy coordination approach instead of the conventional free trade agreements. We simulate macroeconomic adjustments of the four countries according to the different institutional scenarios and economic shocks. The baseline simulation and sensitivity analyses indicate that Taiwan can get benefit by participating in coalitional mechanisms including China. In addition, most of the feasible policy coalitions cannot come into effect without US participation. This implies that at the current stage the US rather than China should be the main economic partner of Taiwan and Japan to prevent them from being economically marginalized.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Japan and the World Economy.

Volume (Year): 22 (2010)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
Pages: 59-68

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Handle: RePEc:eee:japwor:v:22:y:2010:i:1:p:59-68

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505557

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Keywords: Economic isolation East Asia Policy coordination Macroeconomic game;

References

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  1. Beetsma, Roel M.W.J. & Jensen, Henrik, 2005. "Monetary and fiscal policy interactions in a micro-founded model of a monetary union," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 320-352, December.
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  8. Karras, Georgios, 2005. "Is there a yen optimum currency area? Evidence from 18 Asian and Pacific economies," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 456-469, December.
  9. Aminian, Nathalie, 2005. "Economic integration and prospects for regional monetary cooperation in East Asia," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 91-110, March.
  10. Junichi Goto & Koichi Hamada, 1994. "Economic Preconditions for Asian Regional Integration," NBER Chapters, in: Macroeconomic Linkage: Savings, Exchange Rates, and Capital Flows, NBER-EASE Volume 3, pages 359-388 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Cited by:
  1. Yeh, Kuo-chun, 2012. "Renminbi in the future international monetary system," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 106-114.

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