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The impact of airport capacity constraints on future growth in the US air transportation system

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  • Evans, Antony
  • Schäfer, Andreas

Abstract

This paper simulates airline strategic decision making and its impact on passenger demand, flight delays and aircraft emissions. Passenger flows, aircraft operations, flight delays and aircraft emissions are simulated for 22 airports in the US, under three airport capacity scenarios. The simulation results indicate that most system-wide implications for operations and environmental impact seem to be manageable, but local impacts at congested hub airports may be significant. The response of the air transportation system to avoid airports with high delays could significantly impact passenger demand and air traffic for these and directly dependent airports. The simulations also suggest that frequency competition effects could maintain flight frequencies at high levels, preventing a significant shift toward larger aircraft, which would otherwise reduce the impact of the capacity constraints.

Suggested Citation

  • Evans, Antony & Schäfer, Andreas, 2011. "The impact of airport capacity constraints on future growth in the US air transportation system," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 288-295.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jaitra:v:17:y:2011:i:5:p:288-295
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jairtraman.2011.03.004
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Forbes, Silke J., 2008. "The effect of air traffic delays on airline prices," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 1218-1232, September.
    2. Givoni, Moshe & Rietveld, Piet, 2009. "Airline's choice of aircraft size - Explanations and implications," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 43(5), pages 500-510, June.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Chen, Shenwen & Du, Wenbo & Liu, Runran & Cao, Xianbin, 2023. "Finding spatial and temporal features of delay propagation via multi-layer networks," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 614(C).
    3. Hu, Rong & Feng, Huilin & Witlox, Frank & Zhang, Junfeng & Connor, Kevin O., 2022. "Airport capacity constraints and air traffic demand in China," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    4. Ryazanov Vlas, 2013. "Air mobility of people and airport growth potential in regions of Russia," Bulletin of Geography. Socio-economic Series, Sciendo, vol. 22(22), pages 97-110, December.
    5. Das, Deepjyoti & Sharma, Somesh Kumar & Parti, Raman & Singh, Jagroop, 2016. "Analyzing the effect of aviation infrastructure over aviation fuel consumption reduction," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 89-100.
    6. Nie, Pu-yan & Chen, You-hua, 2012. "Duopoly competitions with capacity constrained input," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 1715-1721.
    7. Santos, Miguel Gueifão & Antunes, António Pais, 2015. "Long-term evolution of airport networks: Optimization model and its application to the United States," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 17-46.
    8. Gunter, Ulrich & Zekan, Bozana, 2021. "Forecasting air passenger numbers with a GVAR model," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    9. Gurtner, Gérald & Cook, Andrew & Graham, Anne & Cristóbal, Samuel, 2018. "The economic value of additional airport departure capacity," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 1-14.
    10. Evans, Antony & Schäfer, Andreas, 2013. "The rebound effect in the aviation sector," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 158-165.

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