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Predicting job performance: A comparison of expert opinion and research findings

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Author Info

  • Dakin, Stephen
  • Armstrong, J. Scott

Abstract

A survey was conducted of New Zealand personnel consultants. Their beliefs about the validity of various selection tools and their claimed usage of these tools was then compared with the validities in a previously published meta-analysis. The experts claimed to use the predictors they believed to be most valid. However, their beliefs about validity were unrelated to empirically demonstrated validities (Spearman's rho = -0.06). Suggestions were made on the types of research that are needed to improve predictive ability in selection and on the ways in which practitioners can use existing research.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal International Journal of Forecasting.

Volume (Year): 5 (1989)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 187-194

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Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:5:y:1989:i:2:p:187-194

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ijforecast

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References

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  1. Janz, Tom & Etherington, Lois, 1985. "Using forecasted net benefits in designing improved recruitment and selection systems," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 1(3), pages 287-296.
  2. Slovic, Paul & Fleissner, Dan & Bauman, W Scott, 1972. "Analyzing the Use of Information in Investment Decision Making: A Methodological Proposal," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 45(2), pages 283-301, April.
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Cited by:
  1. Armstrong, J. Scott, 1996. "Predicting insurance agent turnover using a video-based judgement test : Anthony T. Dalessio, 1994, Journal of Business an Psychology, 9, 23-32," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 322-323, June.
  2. Armstrong, J. Scott, 1996. "The validity of employment interviews: A comprehensive review and meta-analysis : Michael A. McDaniel, D.L. Whetzel, F.L. Schmidt and S.D. Maurer, 994, Journal of Applied Psychology, 79, 599-615," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 317-318, June.
  3. Oliver Fabel & Razvan Pascalau, 2007. "Recruitment of Overeducated Personnel: Insider-Outsider Effects on Fair Employee Selection Practices," TWI Research Paper Series 18, Thurgauer Wirtschaftsinstitut, Universit├Ąt Konstanz.
  4. Armstrong, J. Scott, 2003. "Discovery and communication of important marketing findings: Evidence and proposals," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 69-84, January.
  5. Fabel, Oliver & Pascalau, Razvan, 2007. "Recruitment of Seemingly Overeducated Personnel: Insider-Outsider Effects on Fair Employee Selection Practices," MPRA Paper 7218, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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