Mixture of MLP-experts for trend forecasting of time series: A case study of the Tehran stock exchange
Abstract
A new method for forecasting the trend of time series, based on mixture of MLP experts, is presented. In this paper, three neural network combining methods and an Adaptive Network-Based Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) are applied to trend forecasting in the Tehran stock exchange. There are two experiments in this study. In experiment I, the time series data are the Kharg petrochemical company’s daily closing prices on the Tehran stock exchange. In this case study, which considers different schemes for forecasting the trend of the time series, the recognition rates are 75.97%, 77.13% and 81.64% for stacked generalization, modified stacked generalization and ANFIS, respectively. Using the mixture of MLP experts (ME) scheme, the recognition rate is strongly increased to 86.35%. A gain and loss analysis is also used, showing the relative forecasting success of the ME method with and without rejection criteria, compared to a simple buy and hold approach. In experiment II, the time series data are the daily closing prices of 37 companies on the Tehran stock exchange. This experiment is conducted to verify the results of experiment I and to show the efficiency of the ME method compared to stacked generalization, modified stacked generalization and ANFIS.Download Info
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Bibliographic Info
Article provided by Elsevier in its journal International Journal of Forecasting.
Volume (Year): 27 (2011)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 804-816
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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ijforecast
Related research
Keywords: Modified stacked generalization; Mixture of MLP experts (ME); Adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system; Combining neural networks; Time series forecasting;References
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