Online bookmakers' odds as forecasts: The case of European soccer leagues
AbstractIn this paper we examine the effectiveness of using bookmaker odds as forecasts by analyzing 10,699 matches from six major European soccer leagues and the corresponding odds from 10 different online bookmakers. We show that the odds from some bookmakers are better forecasts than those of others, and provide empirical evidence that (a) the effectiveness of using bookmaker odds as forecasts has increased over time, and (b) bookmakers offer more effective forecasts for some soccer leagues for than others.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal International Journal of Forecasting.
Volume (Year): 26 (2010)
Issue (Month): 3 (July)
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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ijforecast
Sports forecasting Brier score Statistical tests Soccer Betting;
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