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Online bookmakers' odds as forecasts: The case of European soccer leagues

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  • Strumbelj, E.
  • Sikonja, M. Robnik
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    Abstract

    In this paper we examine the effectiveness of using bookmaker odds as forecasts by analyzing 10,699 matches from six major European soccer leagues and the corresponding odds from 10 different online bookmakers. We show that the odds from some bookmakers are better forecasts than those of others, and provide empirical evidence that (a) the effectiveness of using bookmaker odds as forecasts has increased over time, and (b) bookmakers offer more effective forecasts for some soccer leagues for than others.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal International Journal of Forecasting.

    Volume (Year): 26 (2010)
    Issue (Month): 3 (July)
    Pages: 482-488

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:26:y::i:3:p:482-488

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ijforecast

    Related research

    Keywords: Sports forecasting Brier score Statistical tests Soccer Betting;

    References

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    1. Forrest, David & Goddard, John & Simmons, Robert, 2005. "Odds-setters as forecasters: The case of English football," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 551-564.
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    7. Batchelor, R A, 1990. "All Forecasters Are Equal," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 8(1), pages 143-44, January.
    8. Forrest, David & Simmons, Robert, 2000. "Forecasting sport: the behaviour and performance of football tipsters," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 317-331.
    9. Song, ChiUng & Boulier, Bryan L. & Stekler, Herman O., 2007. "The comparative accuracy of judgmental and model forecasts of American football games," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 405-413.
    10. Andersson, Patric & Edman, Jan & Ekman, Mattias, 2005. "Predicting the World Cup 2002 in soccer: Performance and confidence of experts and non-experts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 565-576.
    11. Swidler, Steve & Shaw, Ron, 1995. "Racetrack wagering and the "uninformed" bettor: A study of market efficiency," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 305-314.
    12. Donald B. Hausch & William T. Ziemba & Mark Rubinstein, 1981. "Efficiency of the Market for Racetrack Betting," Management Science, INFORMS, INFORMS, vol. 27(12), pages 1435-1452, December.
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