Testing the accuracy of the Downs' spatial voter model on forecasting the winners of the French parliamentary elections in May-June 2007
AbstractThis paper emphasizes a method of forecasting electoral outcomes based on the spatial approach of Harold Hotelling and Anthony Downs' basic model of democracy. This method of forecasting the outcome of presidential elections departs from the standard approach that uses regression models of the popular vote based on a reward-punishment analysis for citizens, as well as other methods like Delphi experts surveys or futures markets for election and probability methods based on opinion polls. Anthony Downs discusses at some length the crucial role of the form of the distribution of preferences along the political left-right scale (unimodal, bimodal or multimodal) and the key role of the location of the overall median voter on this distribution in selecting the winner. The median voter theorem says the winner of the election will be the leader of the camp whose own median voter is closest to the overall median voter. We test the accuracy of this argument "à la Downs", both on a small sample of eight French presidential elections and on a large sample consisting of the 577 constituencies of the French parliamentary election of 2007.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal International Journal of Forecasting.
Volume (Year): 26 (2010)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ijforecast
Median voter Elections Two round ballot Electoral system Party competition Forecasting errors Elections forecasts;
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Jones Jr., Randall J., 2008. "The state of presidential election forecasting: The 2004 experience," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 310-321.
- Anthony Downs, 1957. "An Economic Theory of Political Action in a Democracy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 65, pages 135.
- Christopher F Baum, 2006. "An Introduction to Modern Econometrics using Stata," Stata Press books, StataCorp LP, number imeus, December.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wendy Shamier).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.